19 November

1,000 days and the Claus

Russian forces invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Those incensed by the gross betrayal of international law scurried to find light blue and yellow flags of that country to display solidarity; a few are still visible around Annapolis but not many as 1,000 days ago which was a distant galaxy far, far away.

Some of us contributed to global relief organizations to support Ukrainian families struggling to assure both their children’s safety and adequate food/clothing/shelter, especially for those nearest to the invaders on the eastern border .

Some Ukrainians abandoned their homes in the west to enlist serve President Vlodomir Zelenskyy in the army while others had to hide from indiscriminate missile attacks characteristic of the Russian way of war. Some, of course, also emigrated if they could afford it to places like the United Kingdom or Francebut fleeing one’s homeland amid conflict is a wrenching choice.

Few people talked as if the conflict would end quickly though hope existed that Kyiv’s immediate response could convince Vlad the Impaler of the fanatical Ukrainian determination to remain sovereign. Then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley alerted us to temper optimism by assessing this would be a long, hard slog over several years for Kyiv, despite considerable welcome foreign and military assistance from NATO countries, with no guarantee of success.

The exact number of deaths is unknown, though some estimates climb to a million since Russia began aggressive operations in 2014; the bulk of those people died after February 2022. Military deaths for Ukrainians run to 80,00 along with hundreds of thousands of wounded while Russian casualties accumulated to perhaps 2 1/2 that many, with wounded running five times as many. Refugees across the region fleeing the conflict number in the multimillions as well, including where Ukrainian offensives move into the Russian Federation territory.

Beyond the human costs, of course, are the infrastructure and economic damages from almost steady bombardment. Ukraine has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in gross domestic product and the world lost a major wheat crop. Russia, immediately sanctioned by the west and a few other states, remains isolated but determined to carry on its offensive with petroleum sales to friends still providing income. Yet financial costs leave the Kremlin scrambling for assistance for its allies across the authoritarian world, not merely Beijing and Pyongyang but other capitals outside the U.S.-led group seeking to maintain Kyiv’s independence.

In sum, a thousand days have brought deep disruption to Ukraine and east Central Europe while exposing Moscow’s vulnerability. Yet neither Vlad the Impaler or Zelenskyy is talking about acquiescing to the other side. President Biden, with fewer than sixty days left in office, rushes to provide what assistance he can to Ukraine but virtually no one expects it will turn the tide. Some Republicans and Democrats in Congress still advocate for buttressing Kyiv’s position against a dangerous Putin but attention in Washington increasingly on China’s threat.

President-elect Trump opined he could end the conflict on day one in office, a possibility but not a probability since the president-elect clearly intends mass deportations of tens of millions of immigrants to be the first order of business. The real depth of Trump’s long-running ties with Putin remain mysterious while Zelenskyy’s inadvertent role in the first Trump impeachment in late 2019 likely curbs much hope for sustained massive U.S. commitment after 20 January. Some speculate that the incoming administration could use supporting Ukraine as an indication of its role in leading the world but that strikes me as fundamentally out of sync with the “America First” orientation of the campaign even without the Donald-Vlad “bromance”. Milley’s prediction of a wearying, prolonged fight is also confronting ever deeper public indifference, if not opposition, to aid.

We don’t do well with extended conflicts. Sure, the United States—in another era—engaged longer than a generation in Vietnam but our commitment, beginning in the early 1960s, soured, particularly following the crushing photographs of Vietcong on the Embassy grounds during the Tet Offensive. We saw the opposite of the promised end to sacrificing lives or financial sacrifice: by 1968, Americans had had enough. If anything ought surprise about Vietnam, in retrospect, it’s that five further years passed before U.S. forces fully came home; two years later the futility was unavoidable when Saigon morphed into Ho Chi Minh City under the Democratic People’s Republic of Vietnam. A huge number of U.S. military deaths occurred during that five year period after 1968.

I suspect Taiwan is watching carefully and uncomfortably as a similarly extended fight to maintain the island’s sovereignty apart from Beijing would encounter many of the same endurance challenges as we see with Ukraine. If our own fears of China are correct, the PLA is a more potent force than the Russian Army so it would probably be more adept in a fight. Some analysts argue we cannot abandon a democratic regime attacked by authoritarians yet that is precisely what many are advocating today for Ukraine. Critics of sustaining Kyiv ask why transfer precious resources to the Ukraine mess instead of applying them against a dangerous, modernized China? Would we have other priorities following an extended conflict over Taiwan? What is our thinking on this democracy-authoritarian thing, anyway? I am not sure.

China is under the Communist Party while Moscow is under “elected” authoritarian Vlad the Impaler. This seems an artificial distinction in ideology since neither regime brooks any criticism or contradiction. The difference is that Vlad practices “crony economics” while the CCP does it for Party members. Hardly a comforting nuance.

These 1,000 days illustrate one of the most penetrating of Karl von Clausewitz’s lessons: we cannot assume conflict is ever finished until the political settlement is accepted permanently by both parties. Putin obviously never saw Ukraine as a sovereign state because of the revanchist fantasy in his mind. War is a continuation of politics by other means, the Prussian strategic theorist stated but that truth has rarely been more apparent than in the past thousand days. The advocates of the New Liberal International Order assumed the breakup of the Soviet Union was a permanent set of rules for Europe but Vlad the Impaler never accepted those as final. Turns out few arrangements in global politics are permanent, a fact we seldom consider seriously enough.

As I preach regularly, we cannot straight line events in the world as actions have consequences. Perhaps Ukraine’s actions will convince the Kremlin to withdraw but it seems doubtful. Ukraine as the smaller state relies more heavily on external support than does Russia but both are soliciting aid to slog on. I sadly expect this will horror continue for some time yet. Time will tell, of course.

Two other random thoughts. A thousand days was the ascribed duration of John Kennedy’s presidency (doing the math, I guess it would have been 1037 days) yet that era left such a mark on the memories of anyone who lived through it. Will this conflict, distant and yet relevant, do the same for us as surely it will for those most immediately affected? How about for Europe, NATO, Russia’s partners, and the remainder of the world? What memories will we retain and how will we apply them to future conflicts, regardless this outcome?

Finally, today is the 161st anniversary of Lincoln delivering a few words at the cemetary in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania to consecrate the hallowed ground for thousands who fought there for this nation. Americans killed Americans—well over half a million—between 1861 and 1865 in the most deadly conflict in our history. Inpausing to reflect briefly on another era of profound divisiveness for us as citizens, I print the words Lincoln spoke as they are worth citizens pondering, regardless who or where we are.

“Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But in a larger sense we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember, what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us,that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

Actions create consequences as do political decisions and weapons.

I welcome your rebuttals, suggestions, musings, and questions as I seek a dialogue. Thank you for your time. If you think someone would find this valuable, please feel free to circulate it. Thanks especially to the subscribers; have you considered becoming a paid subscriber to this column?

Be well and be safe. FIN

Carl con Clausewitz, On War. Michael Howard and Peter Paret, editors and translators. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.

Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Russia has suffered colossal losses in Ukraine. Is its Army depleted?”, NewYorkTimes.com, 19 November 2024, retrieved at https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/world/europe/russia-troops-losses-ukraine.html

Dan Lamothe, David L. Stern, and Emily Ruahala, “Pentagon Predicts Ukraine offensive will be long and ‘very violent’“, Washingtonpost.com, 16 June 2023, retrieved at https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-06-16/pentagon-prediction-ukraine-offensive-long-violent-10461710.html

Abraham Lincoln, “Gettysburg Address”, battlefields.org, 19 November 1863, retrieved at https://www.battlefields.org/learn/primary-sources/abraham-lincolns-gettysburg-address

“1,000 days of Russia-Ukraine war: the human and economic cost of the conflict”, FirstPost.com, 19 November 2024, retrieved at https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/1000-days-russia-ukraine-war-human-economic-cost-13836520.html

Carl von Clausewitz, On War. Michael Howard and Peter Paret, translators and editors,