23 April 23

these 113 days

I saw an article in the weekend newspapers that Afghanistan is becoming a hotspot again for terrorists 20 months after the United States and allies withdrew. That ought be a chilling note for anyone over the age of 22 but how does one factor the threat into the panoply of national security challenges for the United States?

Today is 23 April, the 113th day of 2023. Just since the turn of the year, China upended the Middle East by faciliating conciliation between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the same time the Biden administration and its lngest-ally Israel strain over Prime Minister Netanyahu introducing controversial judicial reforms about which Biden disapproves as do millions of Israelis.

The downward spiral of Sino-U.S. relations continues, manifested by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s delayed visits, growing exercises and threats resulting from increased goodwill between the U.S. Congress (and the U.S. administration, generally) and Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, and a somewhat bipartisan House Committee focused on hardening U.S. positions vis-a-vis Beijing. Coming as India’s democracy weaken ever slightly but repeatedly under Modi in the world’s now largest both democracy and populated state, this is an omen worth registering as one ponders events of this year so far.

Putin shows no evidence he is reversing his invasion of neighbouring Ukraine where President Biden has masterfully led a coalition beginning to fray over meeting ever-increasing needs of a valiant Zelenskyy government in Kviv as it continues responding to Moscow’s inept but brutal pounding.

While NATO is a stronger body with the notable addition of Finland to its ranks earlier this month, Erdogan’s prioritising domestic politics over unity against Russia sustains Istanbul’s stubborn refusal to add Sweden to the Alliance. This subtext exemplifies why the members of NATO are a constant source of low-level concern in the West Wing.

Similarly, the AUKUS announcement earlier this month heralds a dramatic increase in British-Australian-U.S. cooperation but with several dubious assumptions hard to see sustainable into the future. As the world welcomes strengthening ties, anxieties in all three capitals regarding the future capacity to meet these commitments is real.

Two warring generals and their supporters in Sudan just this week were another indicator of the fragility of hopes for democracy in Africa. Questions about its sustainability in Tunisia and South Africa over the longer term also loom important.

The horrible violence, too often forgotten in the swirl of other events, perpetuated by the generals in Myanmar continues to beat down the people of that Southeast Asian country. Its reversion to a largely isolated state in the global community is yet another disappointment from less than a generation ago when hope wasso fresh and exciting for a new era under the aging and now incarcerated Aung Sun Suu Kyi.

The financial world is still anxious that a crisis is a definite possibility after bank failings in California, New York, and Switzerland. A relatively common problem in many weaker states now embracing loans from the PRC under the auspices of the Belt & Road Initiative, most observers were caught off guard by this fiscal fragility in some of the most iconic financial regulatory systems. While the affected bank problems appear contained, no one completely writes off the subtext of existing banking concerns.

And for a great deal of the world, the climate-induced challenges for 2023 are only starting as mega-typhoons likely hit northeast Asia and the United States while generalised flooding resulting from diminished glaciers afflict low lying island nations around the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins.

Finally, the various domestic chaos still afflicting the United States, particularly with the debt ceiling urgency only increasing by the hour, give the world reason to pause. An 80 year president with low approval ratings but increasingly looking to vie for reelection against his scandal-plagued almost 76 year-old predecessor might otherwise not instill confidence that stabilizing these multiple issues except this is as good as it’s going to get right now. The Congress, with its split partisan control, appears incapable of coalescing to address any of the items that have popped up over these 113 days so far, with the possible exception of policy on China. Instead, foci on culture wars, priorities of ‘protections’ versus ‘wokeism’ seeming to edge out everything else. Decreasing trust in the third branch does not provide much encouragement.

Where would you put terrorism in a largely ungoverned Afghanistan with its borders open to Iran, Pakistan, China, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan? It is thousands of miles from here yet seared into the memory of thousands of U.S. and NATO forces who served nobly trying to stem terrorism over the past twenty years before the final withdrawal in the face of a Taliban regime seizing power just short of two years back. Put yourself into a decision-maker’s position. How does one address these things? How do we set priorities to use scarce resources and time?

It’s easy to condemn decisions we don’t like but I confess I have no better answers far too often. Being a global power, as every president since Theodore Roosevelt has learned, sucks a great deal of the time.

Yet we are having a beautiful spring on the Chesapeake. I’ll take today’s beauty as I ruminate about these threats. I’d rather be in my shoes than in the White House. How about you?FIN