800th
Actions create Consequences
Today’s column is challenging because my keyboard is not synching so I am typing this manually, thus incentivizing fewer words in this 800th Actions Create Consequences. I hope you are celebrating some holiday cheer, regardless of your faith, so I offer this as something to consider in a quiet moment.
Both the actions and the consequences over merely the first 12 (today is still young!) days of December are many and seemingly surprising. The rapid overthrow of a hated but enduring dictatorship in Syria may auger a new configuration for the Middle East but allies shift as their interests are threatened, lessening sure predictability. A bizarre auto-coup with still unfolding details and consequences grips South Korea as neighbors to the north make noises. The cold-blooded murder of a healthcare CEO in the most heavily surveillance of U.S. cities required a multi-day, multi-state hunt for the assassin who turned out the scion of a prominent Baltimore family. As that occurred, incredible glee celebrated attacks on anyone associated with huge healthcare in the United States. Growing evidence accumulates of China’s demographic and potentially social decline yet the PLAN amassed ships to menace Taiwan, followed by the news that Xi Jinping received an invitation to the 2025 presidential inauguration. Is this a disconnect in our messaging to Asia or a master stroke of political power? Oh, and France is without a Prime Minister, having seen the last one brought down after 91 days in office, while President Immanuel Macron seems increasingly adrift. Ever increasing questions swirl about Europe, whether the EU or NATO. Some hope for a resolution in Ukraine is on the horizon yet what consequences would that create for future generations? Yes, the list is unending.
Each of you can name countless other things where actions and consequences interact but we obviously never entirely know how things will unfold.
I received a note from a subscriber earlier this week that pointed this out in a conversation he had in Germany.
“Germans, (as you may know) are initially pretty cold, business-like and standoffish. I can safely make this assessment because 1) it's true and 2) I'm 50% German through my birth father. Wolfgang (who is 67) was no exception today. But as we continued to break the ice with him over some pretty darn good wine... he began talking politics (unprompted by us). He has concerns about Pres-elect Trump and the potential for tariffs. Wolfgang's wine isn't exported to the U.S. yet...but he's been working on getting a foothold. Tough to do in the wine industry. He asked our perspectives on the tariffs and we kinda' said: not sure...we'll see." Not being a business-person, I have no good frame of reference on the impact on someone like Wolfgang in this situation.
Then, kind of out of nowhere, he brought up Germany's army and (his paraphrased words) the horrible condition it's in. He attributes it all to the turn Germany as a country made in the mid-90s to deliberately allow their defense to be delegated out to the U.S. He's not a fan. He was absolutely on-board with Trump putting pressure on NATO nations to contribute to their own defense with physical resources and/or monetarily. He said much of the country is very concerned with Russia and were watching the Ukraine situation closely. He recalls the aftermath of WWII and is afraid Germany will be unprepared to defend against any serious outside aggression.
He talked along these lines for quite a while...at times, getting a bit emotional as he told us about his kids and grand kids. It was a bit surreal as he continued the conversation in their family wine cellar / cave where he showed us some of the largest wine barrels I'd ever seen. They date back to the mid 1800s. He described how all his ancestors worked many of those same barrels... so large they have to be built outside the cave...each piece numbered, disassembled and reassembled inside the cave. No other way to get them in there.
It was a bit of a sobering conversation but it was clear that he is a student of politics and history. We kind of soft-pedaled our responses but also tried to convey the fact that all nations are stronger together when they have mutual trust leading to true friendships. Interesting evening and discussion. Thought you might enjoy the unique perspective.”
I cite this exchange, with his permission, because it illustrates the anxiety the world suffers as we close out 2024 (ok, we do so 18 days from now). We also know that interactions between nations, like people, are complex and fraught with overlapping issues. Here Wolfgang’s worries about tariffs beginning next year crossed with concerns about Germany’s security vulnerabilities, admitting that he believed the choices made in the past were problematic.
The message from any and all of this is that reconsideration of the past three-quarters of a century is happening across the board. It’s seductive to assume that will be positive for U.S. or British (for our readers there) interests but things rarely are that unequivocal. What is definitely true as of today is that we are in an interwoven world where one push of air can create a windstorm elsewhere.
The result of these national reconsiderations may be to fracture the world to a post-globalized one but how much have we pondered those consequences, unintended and desired, as well. Americans assume we will always come out on top but the lesson to me is that we cannot be sure how long the consequences of any action will either last or even become obvious. President-elect Trump, again, is not the only person reconsidering the post-1945 global system.
My humble suggestion is we prepare by learning as much as we can about ourselves, our desired endstates, and our potential adversaries or opponents. Learning has its benefits, it seems.
I welcome your thoughts on this or any other column; I genuinely yearn for them as I am not right about many things but I try using the evidence to help me sort through asking better questions. Please chime in as you too have a stake.
Thank you for reading any or all of these 800 columns. I especially appreciate those of you who pay to be subscribers as your financial support allows me to pursue ideas and readings that I could not otherwise afford. But I welcome any and all readers so please feel free to circulate this.
HMS Belfast and the Tower Bridge piercing the fog.
Be well and be safe. FIN