A draft in the United States…seriously

Returning or dreaming?

I am attending a conference for a couple of days, keeping up with policy wonks, scholars, and policy executors engaged in planning. It is well attended, chocked full of newbie analysts which is good for our nation as we lure people to study national security. Those of us rotating out by age happily share cups of coffee, smiles, and memories of smaller past gatherings.

Early on this morning, a presenter discussed conflict in the future with apparent assumption about the Draft as needed to achieve our outcomes.

Wait, did I hear him correctly? Is that really on the slide?

The Draft is most definitely not a topic under discussion on our current environment. Our current election cycle includes occasional references to Ukraine or the Middle East. More commonly the topic of China and how to contain its evil actions arises.

But I am completely unaware of anyone actually discussing the renewal of a largely hated national institution abolished by President Nixon in the fall of 1973. I have stated, in a column earlier this summer when discussing recruiting challenges for the Army, Navy, and Air Force, that I find the likelihood of returning to a required national service period under a draft about nil. I am wrong about lots of things, admittedly, but I do track national sentiment on national security issues closely.

This does not mean we would have sufficient force structure to fight certain wars but the public is not receiving any education on that. No hint this might be necessary as far as it seems to me.

The United States has fought with an All Volunteer Force for half a century. The AVF went into the Gulf in 1990 and 2003, along with Afghanistan in 2001. We deploy forces of that same AVF, often as part of the Special Forces subsets from each service, in dozens of countries. The Force interacts with our allied and partnered militaries around the globe. But the stress on any and all of those efforts are volunteer.

Would the U.S. public support some of our policy options overseas if we genuinely acknowledged conscription would be necessary for the enduring nature of some of these challenges? The overwhelming majority of Americans today have no memory of seeing their sons (and theoretically their daughters) fight in extended military conflicts overseas so would they support that if presented with that government-imposed mandate? Would we see any threat vital enough to reintroduce conscription, thus national service for war?

This discussion I am hearing is p hypothetical, as academic conferences are. But, conflicts are not guaranteed in duration or intensity as short, quick events into the future. If we had a conflict with Russia over Ukraine, it could be an extended event whereby we needed long term supply of military personnel rather than relying exclusively on technology and/or allies and partners to be the foot soldiers for the effort. A draft might indeed become important to the effort.

Even more so, a conflict with China could definitely be an extended one, though I have thousands of questions about a Sino-U.S. war’s aims. Would Americans be willing to commit as a society to generalized conscription? Would that influence our decision as a society to go into a conflict with another nuclear armed state? I have no idea but expect the public might have a view.

I welcome your thoughts. I seek your thoughts on any of this as participatory governance requires realistic policy conversations.

Thank you for your time. Please feel free to circulate this if you find it valuable. Thank you to readers and especially subscribers.

Be well and be safe. FIN