assumptions, assumptions

hard to find anything more important

Leaping out at me so clearly again today is how profoundly important assumptions are in life. They provide framing aids for ourselves, others, and the world at large.

Assumptions too often, however, substitute for exploring a situation in depth because they provide a false confidence you know all the facts, the mentality of others, and the flaws in your own analyses. That false confidence can prove absolutely fatal.

Assumptions that are not tested also sew doubts within your team. A group proceeding on unexplored assumptions can fracture if the leader’s hubris becomes a problem. Worse, as the Iraq invasion proved twenty years back, they risk creating a seductive sense of hubris about a scenario which makes solving it quite elusive. This is especially true for a conflict well into its second century as is the Israeli-Palestinian one.

I am uncertain what the Israeli assumptions were through Friday evening. I unconditionally hope that no leader of any state ever blithely allows her or his citizens to be attacked. Conspiracy theorists too frequently default to that flimsy and explosive argument. Whatever my doubts about Netanyahu’s motivations on internal politics, I am confident that nation’s security apparatus is far more robust than a single individual.

But, Israel obviously assumed on some level that the on-going discussions to open formal diplomatic links with long-time foe Saudi Arabia were worth putting other concerns aside. I just have no idea how far aside those were. That may have left Israeli leadership blinded to the Hamas reaction. Or it could be that Hamas simply felt they had to move now to remind the states of the region that Palestinians still are a stateless people. I don’t think any of us know, though the the internet indicates lots of people are happy to opine on this.

Acknowledged Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relations likely played into the entire chess game but it’s difficult to be sure how. Hamas is not the Palestinian Authority, though they are children of the same Palestinian family. Hamas has never abandoned armed struggle nor has it ‘governed’ the Palestinians as the Authority attempts. The Saudis long ago rejected the Palestinian cause by closing their pathway to citizenship not too many years after the population fled the land they claimed as Palestine. A Saudi-Israeli public ‘reconciliation’ is one of the most anticipated aspirations of this decade as quiet conversations between Riyadh and Jerusalem appear following on the Egyptian peace treaty in March 1979. (A humourous note: I was in Cairo the week this occurred visiting my parents where my father worked at USAID. I tried visiting the Giza Pyramids, only to be turned away by Menachem Begin’s visit. My late father loved to chortle that I managed to chose the only day the pyramids had closed in three thousand years because the Israelis and Egyptians decided they liked each other). A similar Jordanian accord with Israel followed a generation later.

Those actions had consequences as Islamic militants assassinated President Anwar Sadat for his actions in October 1981 as did a disgruntled Israeli nationalist similarly gun down Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 following his reconciliation with King Hussein. Actions Create Consequences, intended and vastly unexpected.

I suspect Netanyahu assumed he was safe from those sorts of dangers but clearly Israel still, after 75 years’ existence, is unable to prevent the massive Hamas infiltration by rockets and humans along the border. This latter condition allowed what press reports indicate as 150 Israelis as Hamas hostages. At least 700 dead Israelis and many more Palestinians across the country of just under 10 million is a withering amount of violence over two days. The vaunted ‘Iron Dome’ air defense system is simply inadequate.

Iran’s role in all of this plays into many analysts’ assumptions as well. Conservatives in the United States blame the Biden administration for empowering Iranian radicalism by releasing sequestered Iranian funds in exchange for long-held hostages; their assumption is actually described in more naive terms. Others question whether Iran orchestrated Hamas’ activity to deter the Saudis from their peace conversations with Jerusalem. It strikes me that Teheran assumes they will be part of the inevitable Jerusalem retaliatory response.

And the list of assumptions each side had and has is extensive, often unexamined, and yet so key to the decisions leaders take. One major assumption that raises the stakes in this conflict is Netanyahu’s long-standing determination to prevent Teheran from gaining a nuclear weapon to match what has been widely assumed for more than fifty years to be an Israeli bomb. I suspect most leaders around the world assume this piece of the puzzle is indeed the most dangerous one.

Israel faced its greatest prior failure of assumptions almost a half century ago to the day when Sadat launched the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The Jewish state has studied, restudied, and analysed again the steps leading to that conflict to assure it could not recur. I am sure considering assumptions was central to the studies. The Israeli government likely will do precisely the same this time, with exploring how their assumptions were faulty. It would be malfeasance not to look at what they were thinking that was incorrect.

National security leaders around the globe need ask themselves whether their own assumptions are correct on whatever their major security policies. If not, why not? If not, why are they clinging to them in making decisions? This stuff matters a great deal. Ask Vlad the Impaler about his assumptions 19 months ago on Ukraine. Did he think he would still be at war against such a determined adversary?

Assumptions are not merely important for conflict, of course. They are vital for all decision-making but they all should be reconsidered regularly to assure not continuing with policies no longer relevant. That is not easy but it really is vital as the world evolves.

Actions Create Consequences is about your thoughts as well as mine. Please send me any reactions, questions, rebuttals, or anything else. Thank you for reading this column, especially those of you who so generously support my efforts through a paid subscription. Please recirculate if you think someone you know would appreciate reading the piece.

it is awkward to post something more upbeat in the face of the turmoil and death we see around the world. I am, however, a believer in hope and action. This was our morning in Eastport.

Be well and be safe. FIN