deadly heat redux
extreme climate adds up
Extreme weather contributed to minimally 47,000 deaths in Europe last year, or an average of 128 per day. Of course, heat is worst in the summer so the daily average is rather artificial as a yearly statistic but a lot of people, no matter how many each day, died because of skyrocketing heat in Europe in 2023. That number obviously does not include the deaths in the southern tier of the United States where prolonged dangerous heat caused deaths or China which also underwent a similar experience. Perhaps the worst if the annual build up to the monsoon season over the northwestern Indian Ocean where sweltering is the norm rather than a new twist. I know, you’re tired of it but it is that extreme weather thing again.
Have we thought about the other effects beyond discomfort? Not that discomfort isn’t important but sadly, the evidence of increased fossil fuel use in response to the spiking temperatures spews more noxious gases into the atmosphere—to drive up temperatures further.
A study published three months ago in Heliyon is particularly worrisome. Based on research by Yong Su and Kaleem Ullah, households in China saw annual household energy usage climb by 8.9% when temperatures exceeded 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius).
In an era when people in China had neither the financial assets or access to air conditioning, this might tribulation would have passed with people uncomfortable but unable to bump up consumption of fossil fuels which are the primary source of power in China. Instead, energy generation today requires higher ever increasing numbers of coal-fired power plants which—ta da—disgorge more disgusting chemicals into the atmosphere.
According to TimeandDate.com, the monthly averages for four of the most populous Chinese cities in June, July, August and September provide sobering context. Only Chengdu, the provincial capital, does not have an average that is at the 89 degree mark or worse. Guangzhou and Shanghai can be virtually unbearable for almost half the year without air remediation—but that has knock on effects.
Though what Sichuan province in the southwest (home of Chengdu and Chongquin) two years ago in line with heat Beijing experienced in 2023 were noteworthy as reaching well beyond 100 degrees Fahrenheit, the norms for three of these cities all reach the point examined in the study as triggering higher energy usage. Hardly comforting data.
Beijing 87 89 87 80 (population >21 million)
Chengdu 84 87 87 79 (population >20 million)
Chongqing 85 93 93 83 (population <18 million)
Guangzhou 90 93 93 91 (population >14 million)
Shanghai 83 92 91 83 (population ~30 million)
For comparison, the same data for Delhi are 105 104 98 95 (population <34 million)
How much difference in energy consumption did the temperatures above 89 F cause? Between 9.59 and 30.9% in the medium term versus a whopping 9.77% to 47.7% for the deep future. Put another way, as temperatures rise, home electricity consumption for comfort, for daily gear usage (refrigerators, air conditioners, computers, etc.), and for other reasons may come close to rising by half into the long term. More affluent people have access to devices to help them survive but everyone feels climate extremes and the effects of using more greenhouse gases are anything but cost free for the overall problem.
Coal-powered energy plants generate both power and greenhouse gasses to burden the atmosphere further, raising temperatures further. It is not a pretty picture. This study only reflects on China but one must assume Europe is not far behind as higher temperatures are driving people indoors. I fear how India’s future consumption looks. Energy consumption in the United States, as a much more developed economy for a sustained period, already has higher energy consumption so the increase is likely to be smaller.
Xi Jinping proclaimed that China to be the global model for a green society, implying that his nation will abandon coal-fired plants. But that aspiration confronts three harsh realities. First, China is self-sufficient in coal so as the Party seeks to extend decades of economic growth, turning to the tried and true is so seductive. Why wouldn’t China continue using goal when they have it locally? Many leaders would take a similar choice, regardless of the long-term costs.
Second, the inherent corruption in the Chinese system means that local power plant owners are able to bribe local Party officials to ignore central government mandates. This is hardly new but evidence is that Xi’s vaunted anti-corruption campaign of the past decade has not solved the endemic problem since it keeps reappearing repeatedly across the country. A well-worn phrase in China is that “the mountains are high and the Emperor is far away”. In this case, Xi is in Beijing making proclamations while the local officials enforce—or do not—the central party dicta as Beijing struggles to implement a number of changes across society. This is only one of an incrediblely long, painful list of public policy issues with which the Middle Kingdom struggles. Until the people absolutely demand the society reject coal, China will continue using coal.
Third, amid all the of goals the General Secretary has, the need for China being self-sufficient is crucial; its relevance to Party officials is perhaps second only to the Party maintaining control. Xi desires self-sufficiency, even if it creates adverse effects on the global climate or leaves China behind technologically because he fears to do otherwise would lead to the Party losing power because of those evil foreigners and their goal to hold back the people of China.
These are merely observations in response to this article on China. Similar problems and decisions confront India (an even larger population with a significantly less sophisticated economy), the looming Nigerian behemoth in Africa (build on petroleum, of course), and other places.
In the end, the costs to the planet are enormous. The extreme conditions a year ago killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2023 and lesser numbers in other places as intolerable temperatures prove deadly around the world. This year has been marginally better but we have had the planet’s overall hottest day ever earlier this summer.
Moving to a non-fossil fuel or green world is going to be tres painful as well. Make no mistake: there is absolutely no way we can do this easily or quickly. I chaired a panel at a National Bureau of Asian Research Energy Forum in Seattle almost exactly a year ago where a Korean speaker, a tremendous advocate for this move, stated calmly that the cost in achieving this shift for his nation alone was going to be orders of magnitude of the Korean gdp into the foreseeable future. I can’t find my notes with his exact number, but the cost was astonishingly high. Fossil fuels endure as the energy of choice for most of the world because, regardless how much we pay for air conditioning or petroleum now, it’s cheaper than the green technologies we will need put in place and we already have this technology.
Yet we need go green to survive on this planet; there is no alternate place to live. It’s a painful reality unless there is some solution we haven’t found yet. Even investing in green technology, however, upsets many constituencies which makes it even harder to be serious in our quest.
Relief programs help, as the New York Times story indicated, but they are insufficient to address fully this health security concern. The air conditioners, shade, and water are a step but only a small one.
Actions create consequences. In the case of deaths from extreme weather, it’s a transborder phenomenon of absolutely the most vital consequences without a wall in sight.
Thoughts? Rebuttals? Anecdotes? I welcome any and all as I don’t pretend to have clear answers on quite how to proceed but we really must focus on it now because yesterday wasn’t soon enough.
Thank you for reading Actions today. I welcome you daily, occasionally, or as a subscriber. Please feel free to circulate if you find this of value.
Be well, be cool, and be safe. FIN
“Climate and Weather Averages: Beijing”, timesanddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/china/beijing/climate
“Climate and Weather Averages: Chengu”, timeanddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/china/chengdu/climate
“Climate and Weather Averages: Chongqing”, timesanddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/china/chongqing/climate
“Climate and Weather Averages: Delhi”, timeandddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/india/delhi/climate
“Climate and Weather Averages: Guangzhou”, timeanddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/china/guangzhou/climate
“Climate and Weather Averages: Shanghai”, timeanddate.com, retrieved at https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/china/shanghai/climate
“Delhi population”, worldpopulationreview.com, https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/delhi-population
Austyn Gaffney, “Heat Contributed to 47,000 Deaths in Europe Last Year, but Relief Programs Helped”, NewYorkTimes.com, 12 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/12/climate/excess-heat-deaths-europe.html
Gabriela Gavin, “Europe’s rising temperatures contributed to 47,000 Deaths in 2023, new studiy finds”, euronews.com, 13 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/08/13/europes-rising-temperatures-contributed-to-47000-deaths-in-2023-new-study-finds
Yong Su and Kaleem Ullah, “Exploring the correclation between rising temperature and household electricity consumption: An empirical analysis in China”, Heliyon, 10:10 (30 May 2024), retrieved at https://www.sciencedirect.com/sciences/article/pii/S2405844024061619