dizzying

closing quite the week

It’s Friday ending what has seemed a dizzying week around the world. The South Korean “auto-coup” may end tomorrow when the Korean parliament votes on an impeachment resolution brought forth against President Yoon. A day later, we witnessed the end of the French government in place for a whopping 91 days, with the Parliament voting no confidence in the Prime Minister. How will Macron, with tanking support, respond and what international implications will this have for NATO or other European questions? The restart of major armed violence in Syria was yet another piece to this puzzle as al-Assad’s opponents gained on Hama in the west. Will he respond as viciously as a decade ago and does anyone care?

A most telling story of the week probably was reporting that President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is discussing moves with the incoming Trump personnel to bring a defensive war against Russian aggression to a close. It’s hard to see how Ukraine gets much from this except the incredible sanctity of peaceful conditions yet one has to wonder how long that can last. Vlad the Impaler’s unremitting assertion that Ukraine is a part of Russia is no different than it was on 23 February 2024 when this struggle intensified or in 2014 when his initial foray began with the “little green men” appearing in the Russian-speaking portion of the country. Ukraine has taken a beating of amazing magnitude (as has seemingly Russia’s woeful Army has taken an even greater hit) but Putin appears closer to his fanciful rewriting of history.

What a week.

We used to do war games that brought together a cacophony of challenges like this week for National War College students to force the students to see the criticality of mental agility. Today, the watchword is rigorous thinking but, for my money, we are foolish to abandon agility if thought when once sees this week. I suspect the students found the accumulation of bad events unrealistic yet here we are in 2024. Turns out multiple discouraging events can indeed happen simultaneously.

I know many people are optimistic the new administration will force the world to heel but I am doubtful as history never worked that way.

The reality is that the world is full of problems, none—none—of which has easy solutions because any actions creating follow on effects. That won’t change today, tomorrow, 21 January 2024, or at any point. This is why I keep harping on interests: which of the dangerous events or trends are genuinely relevant to our declared vital interests? Not nice to have positions but interests worth expending blood and treasure? Have we thought that through when we leap to respond to problems? I am not claiming to have the answer because I so genuine think it must be an answer following public policy debate but I am convinced we go into auto-pilot to assume we must act.

Is Russia behind all of this? Perhaps. Is China to blame for these problems? Perhaps. Is our most cherished of American beliefs that peace is the norm, thus problems need be resolved to “return” to peaceful conditions, correct? Perhaps. But with answering perhaps to all three of these questions, the answer might also be “no” to any of these points. It’s usually a compound answer with many pieces since actions cause consequences.

And none of this even discusses domestic politics altering the course of regimes and commitments day by day.

What is enduring these days besides problems?

I welcome your rebuttals, questions, comments on this column. We desperately need more dialogue so everyone appreciates implications. Please chime in!

Thank you for your time. Thank you especially to the subscribers.

I saw this sign today that made me smile as it sums up much in world, I think.

Be well and be safe. FIN