Earthquakes of many sorts

We shall see

Gansu province, in central or northwest China, is a remote area. Some of it is quite pretty while much is a bereft moonscape. Getting there takes a while. The relief necessary following last night’s 6.2 Richter scale tremor will indicate how much the PLA’s capabilities matured a generation after falling woefully short with the Sichuan tragedy on 12 May 2008.

That earthquake was considerably stronger at a magnitude 8.0, leading to the deaths of almost 70,000. The epicenter was in the mountains about fifty miles northwest of the provincial capital, Chengdu. Cities well outside China, Hanoi and Bangkok, felt it.

The 2008 earthquake set off allegations of CCP corruption because a substantial—a suspiciously high—percentage of the collapsed buildings were schools, killing massive numbers of children. In a society still prohibited with more than one child per family, the anguish was devastating.

Premier Wen Jiaobao raced to the scene to assure locals that the Party understood their pain and would do its best to reconstruct the villages and homes. Rumors have long circulated that families losing a child also got hefty settlements to quash rising public discussion of this inconvenient fact of poor school construction. This was the same year that uncommon blizzard conditions hit eastern China as people working in the factories of coastal cities prepared for their annual three week pilgrimage home for the Spring Festival. Wen served the same role in dissipating growing frustration about inadequate Party preparedness to assist people foiled by nature that this holidays outside of jam-packed transportation hubs. The Party couldn’t inhibit nature’s behaviour but could assure the affected of Beijing’s sympathy—as far as it went.

Xi Jinping took power as public sentiments about corruption in the PRC were extremely high four and a half years later. One of the justifications for his ‘anti-corruption’ purges was addressing public outrage over the unexplained wealth of Party members and their families juxtaposed against the poor victimised by shoddy construction, poor government (read Party) oversight over that construction, and nature (the latter of which was sending a possible message about the Party General Secretary retaining the ‘Mandate of Heaven’ to rule).

It is easy to overstate the mythical part of China but there is some value and comfort in returning to the cultural explanations for people who lack ideology or political power but seek an alternative explanation for current affairs.

The PLA responded poorly to the 2008 earthquake with little ‘lift’, be it helicopters or transport aircraft. U.S. officials and others from around the globe offered humanitarian assistance to the CCP but were rebuffed to put boots on the ground unless under U.N. Relief agency auspices. China is a big power and could take care of its own problems. Beijing did accept financial contributions, including one from the United States.

In 2009, as part of a visit to Chengdu, my delegation visited a refugee camp still housing a considerable number of people from Bichuan, the nearest town to the epicenter. Reconstruction efforts were excruciatingly slow in a country excelling at building infrastructure and rapid trains at an incredible pace. The contrast in outcomes was stark.

China learned lessons about capabilities necessary for internal disruptions but this tragedy allows them to apply those lessons. The PLA modernisation, already underway in 2008, continued over the past fifteen years. Much of the emphasis has been on reorganisation or on PLA Navy modernisation but the People’s Liberation Army Air Force similarly is a more potent force.

I have been to Gansu. While road infrastructure between large towns is robust, the vast open province is still vastly underpopulated compared with coastal areas. Its Han, Hui (a Muslim Han population which grew from the intermarriage of Han and Islamic traders along the Silk Road piercing this province), and a significant number of Tibetans means this is not a high priority for Beijing except to prevent anti-Han activities.

Even if one seeks to arrive in Lanzhou, the dusty provincial capital, it’s an 19 hour train ride to Beijing or more than three hours’ flight time. The city, unsurprisingly, is not a prosperous hub of China, either, but a large city with distinctly Stalinist architecture coming up against many mosques. With Xi’s crackdown on Islam within the PRC since 2016, it’s hard to imagine Lanzhou is not heavily guarded by one of the many levels of police but those troops are far from prepared to add much useful to rescue efforts a couple of hours away. Lanzhou isn’t as dangerous to the CCP as Urumqi, the capital of Uighur Xinjiang province, but it’s definitely linked to the Tibetans and the Silk Road minorities.

The Party will respond as visibly as possible to assure, yet again, the Gansu public and those who watch events unfold on state-run television that things are under control. The true scale and nature of the response will be of interest to many here and abroad.

Beijing had a major snowfall last week. It is December and the city is roughly on the same latitude as Washington, D.C., where snowfall has been known to occur in a while during this month. At the same time, I can’t help but wonder if Xi worries the Celestial Heavens is sending a message about possibly losing the Mandate. It’s a far shot and I think his grip on power is quite strong but obviously Xi worries about his internal threats all of the time, evidenced by his constant public haranguing about the need for state security. By this he means security for the CCP against anyone—internal or external—seeking to oust it. One of the common causes for any dynastic collapse in China is inability to help citizens after natural disasters, citizens who turn to a successor to address problems undermining their daily lives.

One hundred people dead so far is most definitely not 69,000 of 2008 but communications bring the reality of all of China’s daily life into people’s consciousness. As hard as the Party tries to control its image, the reality of the strengths and weaknesses are known. Xi knows this and worries about it a great deal.

Thank you for reading Actions Create Consequences today and any day. I welcome your reactions, suggestions, and rebuttals. I especially welcome those of you who read it regularly to become supporting subscribers as I appreciate it more than you know.

Annapolis, by the way, is not merely a beautiful sunrise town but an stunning afternoon vision in the winter.

Be safe and be well. FIN