ever think about the neighbours?
Mexico
I spend a lot of waking hours thinking about, talking about, and wondering about China as you know. I am not alone. But it may shock you that I don’t think it’s the most important country in the world for the United States on a day in and day out basis. No, by a wide margin, that country is Mexico. China plays a different role in our lives.
You remember, Mexico is the country with whom we have a rather extended border. That country which was considerably larger than today before we inexorably took over roughly half of their territory beginning with the Louisiana Purchase of 1803 and ending with the Treaty of Mesilla, better known as the Gadsden Purchase, fifty-one years later. The Mexico into which Zachary Taylor and John J. Pershing famously led troops in campaigns eight decades apart. That country, Mexico, with 130 million people, many of whom are marginalised by their government and caught in the middle of violence by narcotraficantes. The same country with whom trade is a major stimulant for the U.S. economy and its emigrants—legal or illegal—are the backbone of so many working communities that keep this country functioning.
Americans so famously ignore arguably our greatest blessing—geography—which endows us with magnificent neighbours. The border with Canada, whether on water or on dry land, has been a peaceful one for centuries. Like all neighbourhoods, however, we do not always get along with the people on either side of us all of the time. We see the Canadians as nice, polite, hockey-playing and poutine-eating folks (although my son is finding the bureaucracy in British Columbia utterly bewildering at times) with whom we have so much in common, eh?
Mexicans are generally Catholics with three-quarters of the 130 million people professing the Faith; do we realise that 53.3% of Canadians are also Catholic, I wonder? This makes Mexico the second largest Catholic population behind Brasil, a Faith with an exceptionally interesting history in Mexico that we can discuss in another column.
Mexicans are also indeed a mezcla, or mixing, of peoples as are Canadians. The difference is that Mexicans are primarily a blending of indigenous populations with the Spanish and other Europeans who seized control of the control from the Aztecs in the 1520s while Canada’s First Nations remain fiercely independent in many ways after their relative losses in population status elative to the millions of immigrants over the past four hundred years.
Finally, both our neighbours are democracies yet somewhat different because of the colonial heritage each experienced. Canada has a vibrant parliamentary system with many parties while Mexico has an extremely strong chief executive and a history of single party dominance for most of the past century following a bloody civil war upended the country between 1910 and 1928.
Are you aware that Mexico has major elections this year? Well, you should be because it will affect us a great deal. The obvious aspect is that a woman is almost certain to lead the nation following the 2 June vote, a first in the nation’s two hundred and fourteen year history. At present, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo appears likely to take the presidential sash from fellow party incumbent Andrés Manuel López Obrador (better known as AMLO) with Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz of the Broad Front for Mexico still appealing to a sizeable voting bloc.
What do these women mean for Mexico if elected? Sheinbaum Pardo is a scientist but has been in politics for several years, serving in the Congress and at the local level in the Federal District region. The Morena Party from which she and AMLO harken is a populist movement centered around the latter’s decades of nationalist messaging in the defense of Mexico versus the traditional boogie-men north of the border. Morena seeks to continue expanding Mexico’s economy through trade with the United States, China, and other states but shows no willingness to confront the narcotraficantes’ grip on entire portions of the country. AMLO argued that electoral reform was the key to moving the country forward but Mexico’s relatively strong federal judiciary thwarted his intentions to remake the country into a friendlier place for AMLO and his protegés such as Scheinbaum Pardo has shifted from a technocrat to a more traditional politicians over her years in politics. Some analysts fear her election would become essentially further term for AMLO but that remains to be seen since Scheinbaum Pardo.
Gálvez Ruiz, as evidenced by her preferred use of an Otami middle name, was in technology and business before joining politics. She is not from the upper class any more than first-generation immigrant Scheinbaum Pardo but she is the kind of unlikely success that so stimulates respect in the United States. Gálvez Ruiz’s father is a member of the fifth largest indigenous population in Mexico, a throwback to the days when indigenous politician Benito Juárez governed the nation briefly in the 1850s amidst centuries of Spanish dominance. Trained as a computer engineer at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, she also participated in projects relating to building development, extending technology through the country, and associated advances to the nation. Gálvez Ruiz also was a philanthropist of some note before running for mayor of her Mexico City suburb.
Neither woman has vast experience in dealing with security issues, internally or with relation to the United States. It’s seductive to assume that either would be bowled over in bilateral relations with the two candidates for our own election but that assessment fatally underestimates the strength of anti-U.S. sentiment that has existed among Mexicans, particularly the elites, for decades. Americans were thrilled to see Vicente Fox Quesada elected president in 2000 because he had worked for Coca Cola and spoke English. The assumption was that he would align his views with our own. Fox Quesada took a distinctly pro-Mexican position on immigration, on trade, and on security concerns. I find it impossible to believe that either Gálvez Ruiz or Scheinbaum Pardo would do any differently.
Whomever wins the election will contend with major internal problems as well as the hostility at the U.S. border. Drug trafficking and associated violence have gradually destroyed the state level judiciary in many areas of the country for thirty years after narcos began moving north from Colombia in the 1990s. Some portions of Mexico today are under those traffickers as the federal government looks the other way in hopes of the violence and extra judicial killings not spreading. As businesses flee violence, unemployment rises, particularly among youth. Resulting economic, social, and familial instability have led to massive internal migration problems that are tough for anyone to address. Adding the illegals transiting Mexico from further south only exacerbates the collapse of poorly paid police forces and an overstressed military rarely used for domestic response due to its history of political violence.
Reform is essential to Mexico’s future, as true for so many other countries in one way or another, but the regional politics of various areas make that almost impossible to achieve. The eight decade dominance of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) ended at the federal level in 2000 with Fox Quesada’s victory over corruption and ossification but the Party retains much power at state and local levels where it functions as organisers for many communities. Originally built on the back of labour, the PRI retains a voice in the economic and social marginalisation of much of the indigenous population despite NAFTA’s thirty years of benefits. Until the power of the PRI is broken across the nation, Mexico will continue struggling with many challenges that never meet resolutions, regardless who wins the presidency.
Americans ought to pay attention as this is the country we will have to engage over immigration—legal and illegal— into the future. I can’t see any simple solution since numerous reports remind us that immigrants are proving vital to economic growth whether we like it or not. That is not a pass on my part for illegal activity; it is a statement of what research indicates. The question we are not answering is whether those born here or those migrating legally would take the jobs these illegals are doing? I have no idea but the question definitely matters and we are currently completely obfuscating the challenges by making it sound as if any Mexican must be a drug trafficking, murdering criminal.
Why on earth would any incoming Mexican president respond well to this knowing she must defend her position at home as well as with our leadership? Actions create consequences. We better engage in domestic dialogue—not screaming matches—to determine our priorities on immigration if we want to advance discussions and secure Mexico’s cooperation on this complex issue. Building a wall might have profound consequences that we are completely missing to our profound detriment. Mexicans are already frustrated with our policies on guns as a major exacerbation for their violence problems so they are not keen to hear lectures from us about preferred behaviour.
We should not kid ourselves: things along the border could get worse if Mexico made certain choices, regardless who wins our election.
Thank you for reading ACC today and any day. I hope you will consider a subscription to support this work. I welcome your feedback on this and any other topic. Please circulate this if it strikes you as valuable to others.
Spring is here so the Creek is gradually awakening and buds are becoming colourful flowers. I saw some nascent azalea colour, too.
Be well and be safe. FIN
FWD.us, ‘Immigration Facts: the Positive Economic Impact of Immigration’, www.congress.gov, 2024, retrieved at https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116727/documents/HHRG-118-JU01-20240111-SD012.pdf
Joint Economic Committee, ‘Immigrants are vital to the U.S. Economy’, www.jec.senate.gov, no date, retrieved at https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/6750b0f0-c851-4fee-9619-295582fd44e8/immigrants-are-vital-to-the-us-economy-final.pdf
Rob Wile, ‘How immigrants are helping boost U.S. job market growth without affecting inflation’, nbcnews.com, 7 April 2024, retrieved at https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/immigrants-are-helping-us-job-market-grow-without-affecting-inflation-rcna146570