flexible versus inelastic allies
the anti-Russian coalition, Germany, and Ukraine
Tuesday marks eleven deadly months for Ukraine since Vladimir Putin sent his forces in to destroy that independent nation-state. The Ukrainian forces, under President Vlodomire Zelenskii’s unswerving leadership, have proven that a state which prepares to defend itself against great odds can in today’s world sustain the defense for a long while with sustained tenacity and political will. Putin and Russia’s approach to fighting have been unsurprising to anyone who ever studied that country’s history of warfare: destroy, destroy, destroy with no regard to the lives it costs.
What has perhaps surprised many has been the anti-Putin coalition because it has held together well whether in financial, military, and political terms. President Joe Biden’s role, as was true almost exactly thirty-three years ago for President George H.W. Bush against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, proves that staying engaged in the international realm, even if a Senator or a former CIA Director, can assure familiarity with foreign affairs and the levers of coalition-building which is so important in today’s world. Americans may wrestle with whether Joe Biden is too old to stand for a second term in 2024 but I cannot think of a single leader around the world, now that Queen Elizabeth passed, with nearly the longevity in foreign relations compared with him. That is no guarantee he is right but endurance, experience, and seniority play at least a small role in crises such as this one.
The current foci are whether Ukraine can secure tanks to respond to Russian ground actions. Russia’s forces attempt to brutalise the population in all domains—land, sea, air, and cyber. President Vlodomir Zelenskii has made securing tanks an absolute priority to address a military imbalance with the significantly larger Russian force.
The coalition faces new tensions as Germany refuses to send any of its Leopards until Washington provides the Abrams. As the New York Times pointed out this morning, European pressures are mounting on Berlin to commit to the tanks so Ukrainian training for their use can begin.Cassandra Vinograd, 'Amid Mounting rustration with Germany, Ukraine Holds out Hope It will get Tanks', Nyt.com, 21 Janaury 2023 Prime Minister Rishi Sanak of the United Kingdom, for example, announced earlier this month that more than a dozen of its tanks will make their way to Ukraine but Zelenskii needs far more and the German equipment would be preferable.
Chancellor Olaf Shultz does not want the Bundeswehr military hung out before the United States makes a similar commitment which will widen the conflict by providing Kyiv more capacity. Shultz will have to determine how far he wants to walk seemingly alone as his European partners publicly implore him to move forward with these arms. The Biden administration appears to be leaving the public pressure primarily in European hands but Germany certainly appears to be holding back much needed aid.
Will this be the item that starts to shread the coalition? The timing to advance this help links largely to Ukrainian forces seeking to be ready for a probable spring Russian onslaught. A second concern, however, hovers in the background: how hard will it be to sustain support for Ukraine in the new Washington configuration? While Congress is a split between the House and Senate in opposing hands, the predictability of Senate Democrat Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema can have unexpected consequences in a body of 50-49-1, even with Vice President Kamala Harris’ support for the Administration’s policy. The outright opposition by many in the new House Republican majority is loud, though by no means determinative of U.S. policy—now.
Repeated reminders that Ukraine has done better than largely expected against the Russian but still faces an extended, pervasive threat to its survival merit consideration. Guts and gumption served the British public during the Blitz of 1940 but Hitler managed to turn overconfidence and hubris into a deadly fiasco by prematurely embracing the Eastern Front before prostrating the Britain. Putin, with his obsessive fantasies about destroying Ukraine’s autonomy, seems less likely to miscalculate in that manner, though war has unpredictabilities once it begins that no one can foresee. Putin’s nuclear threats still reside obvious as well.
The determined Ukrainians need the tanks and Germany is a logical provider but time will tell. Tanks are only a part of the equation as the coalition could still confront many obstacles to its sustainment. It’s still early in winter where ferocious cold temperatures could lead to decreasing support for all-too-important sanctions against the Russians. All sorts of twists and turns in any of countries in the coalition could strengthen or weaken support.
One of the greatest mistakes we make is to straight line where a conflict will go. The human element guarantees that initial prediction is almost always wrong. FIN