Fushun

the future of hollowed out China

To read a truly sad article, consider the article (citation below) on Fushun, a place with 1.7 millions residents but confronting births last year of roughly one quarter the number in Detroit, hardly our most robust city (although I do think the Michigan city is reviving). But the tale from Fushun is one plagued with resignation. It also illustrates the possible consequences for well-meaning actions from decades ago.

China’s Communist Party leadership imposed the infamous “One Child” policy (OCP) fully forty-five years ago, hoping to decrease both the number of mouths to feed as well as jobs needed to keep people busy. Whatever the multiplicity of failures by that regime, the OCP was an unmitigated success at limiting population growth. China’s birth rate in 1970 was a hair below 40 births per thousand people while a measly 10.48 per thousand today. Put in other terms, the population is decreasing dramatically.

Population statistics are just that…numbers. This article, however, elucidates the effects for an aging population without replacement numbers to pay for a social safety net.

Fushun is in Liaoning Province, part of the historic rust belt that actually did well during the Four Modernizations period which began simultaneously with the OCP. Its growth in mining, chemical production, and the heavy industry was a factor fueling the export trade which made China an economic powerhouse. Some place had to produce energy and Lushun excelled at it. As the article notes, the Party officials were lauded for their economic prowess producing energy while bringing the birth rate down quickly and effectively, freeing up more workers. It was a double win, it seemed.

Mentioned in passing is environmental destruction in Liaoning, a problem deeply affecting this tale. Northeast China has historically been powered by coal, like so much of the country. The greater economic growth of the 1980s led to much greater air pollution, water pollution from run off, and an overall decreased life style since being outdoors was harder under the massive smog conditions.

The CCP committed in 2000 to abandon coal in favor of more acceptable, renewable resources for energy. This was partially responding to international expectations as environmental concerns rose and China sought a greater place in world leadership. Less considered, however, was the demand by the population for a better physical environment in which to raise their One Child (until that policy ended in 2015). Families began reassessing the future. Plus, coal-fired industries never disappeared. Ccorruption allows coal to remain the primary source of energy as local party officials ignore the laws Beijing sets on energy (the mountains are high and the Emperor is far away, is the common complain about this phenomenon). Additionally, coal is domestically-sourced, preventing China from becoming too dependent on energy the dreaded international menace (read us) could use to strange China’s proper, a concern driving so much of Xi Jinping’s policies.

But moving from coal at the turn of the 21st century still decreased industry in Fushun which in turn drove away young people because of the paucity of opportunity. Whether it was small canteens, as discussed here, or office positions, those sources of income diminished in this aging town. It became a spiral still falling faster than the Party can find solutions to prevent. The older folks retired but chose not to or could not afford to move. They are what is increasingly left in this hollowing out city.

Actions, no matter how needed or irrelevant, can have profound consequences. We too often focus on the malevolent ones but policies with genuine benefits, like the Four Modernizations, can adversely affect people and conditions down the line.

Fushun thus becomes a harbinger for China’s mid-term future as demographics require decades to change. China successfully took on too many mouths to feed in the late 1970s, only to find the approach was too draconian to now produce the population necessary to sustain medium and large cities. Fushun has lost a quarter of its population in the past twenty-four years, according to government statistics. The country as a whole, clocking 1.425 billion population in 2024 will be just below 800 million seventy-five years from now.

China, of course, is not alone in seeing aging populations as we have discussed many times. We are the only large modern economy not facing similar trajectories because of our influx of immigrants but that may well change soon. It’s not the same as losses from war but aging populations without replacement levels will stress budgets, especially in the social safety net of any and all countries.

I welcome any rebuttals, comments, or questions. I appreciate your thoughts on this trend and the future implications for Fushun or for Ft. Worth.

Thank you for your time reading Actions. I appreciate each of you so we can expand our thinking. I especially thank those who can make about a $1 a week contribution to sustain this newsletter.

Be well and be safe. FIN

“China Birth Rate”, macrotrends.com, retrieved 11 December 2024 at https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/china/birth-rate

Yoko Kubota and Liyan Oi, “In China’s Rapidly Aging Cities, Young People Flee and Few Babies are Born”, WSJ.com, 9 December 2024, retrieved at https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-elderly-aging-babies-fertility-coal-mines-43c0b34f?mod=china_news_article_pos3