governing follows campaigning

a reminder

Elections officials across the country finally called the House of Representatives’ races to determine the Republicans’s majority as of yesterday afternoon. Speaker Michael Johnson, the Louisiana Republican who took the gavel last year upon Californian Kevin McCarthy’s ouster, joked that he hopes the incoming president doesn’t choose more sitting members because it could affect Johnson’s majority but the reality is that the partisa split between the two parties’s numbers of seats could not be much closer.

Senate Republicans held their leadership vote yesterday, by secret ballot, whereby John Thune, once the outsider who shocked the political world by defeating then-Majority Leader Thomas Daschle in the 2004, in turn is now the ultimate establishment figure himself. Texan John Cornyn ran second while Floridian Rick Scott ran a distant third as their colleagues pondered who would fill the shoes of Kentuckian Mitch McConnell. Many reports refer to Thune as more of an “institutionalist”. I suspect the country simply wants someone who can lead the upper body in governing.

The incoming president returned to the White House yesterday for brief discussions with the outgoing president as traditionally occurs. President-elect Trump then returned to announcing cabinet nominations to assure, as he promised during the campaign, he can launch changes on 20 January. By all indications, he fully intends to carry out expulsion of millions of immigrants as his first obligation. Trump’s cabinet preferences so far portend a radically different relationship between the administration nominees and the government administrative apparatus. The President-elect seems determined to carry out some of the actions he floated during the campaign.

The problem Trump’s proposals during the campaign were wildly contradictory, as invariably occurs, making any translation into policy messy, if not impossible. Post-mortem explanations for the election are remarkably wide-ranging, meaning people voted for Trump for a vast number of concerns rather than a pointed, easily defined cause. Reconciling that number, as true for any and all coalitions, gets harder as the number of different views rises. The president-elect’s economic stances on cutting taxes while imposing tariffs is a single example.

Put another way, Trump and Republicans will find it hard to satisfy everyone who voted them into office. That translates into serious ramifications for creating policy. It’s not as simple as saying “I will make it so”. No one simply makes it so, particularly a 78 year old leader who is currently term-limited from running again (though the incoming president already is seeding the idea he might be so good we would waive that Constitutional provision).

So we have tabulated the nation’s votes and the majority political preference for Republicans is clear. What will this mean in practice?

To reiterate something obvious, the Constitution calls for checks and balances within a complex system intended to thwart—yes, thwart—the actions of any single individual without broad engagement with the other branches. President-elect Trump has been remarkably able to subjugate the Republican Party to his positions on so many topics. John Thune’s ability to lead the Senate as it navigates the future will be the most obvious story still to unfold. Will that continue indefinitely? I have no idea nor does anyone else, regardless what we hear. Only seeing the individual proposals come to the fore will answer the question and that will occur over the course of the administration rather than within the next ten days.

“Buckle up, buttercup” is a phrase often used in humor as a clash between views arises. This is where we are as a democracy but it matters a great deal to each and every single one of us.

I welcome your thoughts, rebuttals, and suggestions. I appreciate your time reading this column. Please feel free to circulate this column if you find it valuable.

Be well and be safe. FIN