it can always be worse
observations on the current 'holding pattern'
I basked in some sunlight this morning as we had a massive, spectacular thunderstorm clear out the heat and humidity last night. I wasn’t as quick as my neighbor who captured a superb photograph of the lightning bolt across the creek but I got a handful of splendid post downpour shots. It’s simply picture perfect today as we begin the second half of the year, though this shot was immediately after the deluge last evening.
It’s also a time for somber consideration following the results of the initial round of voting yesterday In France. The ultra-Nationalists, led by Marine LePen, scored fully a third of the seats in the Parliament, with the ruling party coming in a distant third. The particulars of the Fifth Republic force a run off election six days from now to see which party will win a majority. Should LePen’s National Rally achieve that level of support, President Emmanuel Macron would face governing with the rightists for the remainder of his term.
Much like (but not quite as risky as) Rishi Sunak’s quick decision to hold the British general election three days from now Referendum, Macron’s choice to call the election was a huge gamble. We shall see Thursday whether the Tory outcome is any better than the pro-business candidates under Macron. In the face of a huge rebuke of the existing government, however, one must take a look at the messages voters are sending and receiving.
Red lights are flashing regarding the aspirations of extreme conservative, if not outright Fascist, views. Great terminology but what do the growing voices sharing these perspectives advocate? They have long protested, fought, and condemned any immigrants, particularly from former colonial realms such as Africa or the Middle East where persons “of color” live. Never mind that France and Britain were colonial masters over these very areas. The populist nationalists demand harsh, strict retraction of many rights for foreigners, such as those of their children born in France, or access to public services. The French Rally also attacked macronisme for economic policies leading to inflation. The Rally, like most hard right populists in elsewhere Europe and the United States, seeks to recraft existing system of the Fifth Republic but has never been in a position of governing. LePen is the heir to the movement her father began cultivating half a century ago but she has modernised it with a more contemporary flair—and seemingly a more covert approach to previously unthinkable policies.
The rise of these movements coincides with a dramatic increase in anti-Semitism across Europe. The movements tend to use a Christianity as their base but that is not to say all Christians oppose Jews. It does mean that Jews are wary of these movements and their overall acceptance, yet again, eighty years after six million perished in the Holocaust.
The Telegraph of London mused that the French first round vote might be a message to Labour’s Keir Starmer in advance of Thursday’s vote. I am not a specialist in British politics but that strikes me as wishful thinking by a Tory-leaning paper. Britain is in a somewhat different position than the rest of Europe in that Tory power, like Macron’s shorter rule, is now completing its fourteenth year. In participatory systems, incumbents wear out their welcome as much by duration as by policies. Starmer is a relatively coherent, policy-driven leader who has driven Labour back to the center following Jeremy Corbin’s disastrous positions of the late 2010s. Perhaps Sunak can pull out a tremendous surprise but today’s New York Times offered a colorful map comparing British voting preferences from 2019 and polling as of this past week, with Labour’s growth dramatic over the past five years of Tory theatrics and reversals under BoJo, then Liz Truss, and now Sunak. Even if Labour does not score a substantial victory in Parliament, I don’t see evidence that Nigel Farage’s national populist movement could take a major role in Westminster. We shall see.
France and so much of Europe seems to be on hold these days, however, with the continent still aware of a war on its eastern fringe. Should a Trump presidency threaten the expanded NATO by emboldening Vlad the Impaler even further in his revanchist fantasy to recreate Rus, all bets would be off. Far right politicians across the continent from southeast Europe to the north continue railing against the global world order bent on victimizing Europeans—whites, of course. LePen may be the most successful extreme rightist in recent French history but is hardly a lone voice seeking to upend the European societies cultivated over the post-World War II era.
Is Vlad providing assistance to these movements? Probably as his weird mix of Russian Christian Orthodoxy and ultra-nationalist historic revisionism syncs with the same the same themes in Hungary under Viktor Orban, in Italy with Giorgia Meloni, and other locations. Germany, with aggressive laws to prevent a return to the horrors of the 1930s and 40s, has seen the ultra-nationalist right grow again, achieving electoral successes for Alternative fir Duetschland (AfD) at the local level in three votes last year. Immigration and foreigners changing the “good, old” system are the concepts feared by all of these movements.
No country has seen the horrifying violence by Norwegian Anders Behring Breivik from 13 years ago this month when he murdered dozens of fellow citizens in raising awareness of the his view of deterioration of Norway. But the Scandanavian of welcome for foreigners is now less enthusiastic as those countries discuss political and social policies once thought unnecessary or uncharitable regarding those from abroad.
It’s vital to remember that political trends oscillate over decades as countries see their policy successes and failures ebb and flow. The approach following World War II is under siege by many political movements around the world, not merely from Beijing trying to rewrite rules in its favor. The Bretton Woods regime, built on free trade, international law, and global equality based on nation-state status rather than gross domestic product, population or land mass appears to disadvantage people who are blaming foreigners rather than recognizing the incredible transformation automation brings to all of our lives. The movements stoking resentment, humiliation, and blame are replete with individuals who have never governed anything but know what they don’t like—that which is in place at present. The assumption their followers believe is that things can only get better by tossing out the old yet history is full of examples of greater chaos making everything consideraably worse for these ‘victimized’, with much violence to boot.
Mercifully, the British Prime Minister Sunak will get his verdict within 72 hours on whether he stays in power or relinquishes the reigns to someone else. President Macron and Ms. LePen will wait upon the views of the French voters only three days after that. Our own election is merely four months from this Friday, although who knows how long it will take to satisfy all parties of the actual outcome of popular vote.
This global holding pattern is unnerving for all. Voices on the populist right are demanding dramatic change but so are a smaller number of people on the far left in France, in Britain, and even here at home. It’s simply an era of discontent and anxiety all around as the world moves so swiftly to change. The irony of the incapacity with which we await people’s preferences juxtaposes against the rapid pace of societal transformation.
Never say it cannot get worse as things can always get worse. It just feels that not knowing is the hardest as people prefer stability, regardless what they claim.
Elections matter so don’t kid yourself that your vote is irrelevant. Your candidate may not win with your vote but your views have a much lesser chance of triumphing if you sit out an election. We have daily evidence to that effect.
Thank you for reading ACC. I welcome any and all thoughts, questions, observations, and rebuttals: that is what I seek to cultivate. Thank you for taking time to read this so please circulate it if you feel of value. Thanks deeply to the subscribers whose financial investment helps me a great deal.
Be well and be safe. FIN
Noemie Bisserbie and Stacy Meichtry, '“Far Right Wins First Round of French Parliamentary Elections”, wsj.com, 1 July 2024, retrieved at https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/far-right-looms-as-france-kicks-off-parliamentary-elections-5828d7ac?mod=breakingnews
“Labour Could Win Back the Heartands It Lost in the Last Eleiction”, NewYorkTimes, 1 July 2024: A7.
Li Zhou, '“AfD Germany: The dangerous resurgence of German’s far right, explained”, vox.com, 12 March 2024, retrieved at https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/3/12/24080074/germany-afd-far-right