'it can't get any worse'

uh, yes it can but we don't know

The bombing at a memorial for the late Iranian general Qassim Suleimani further indicates the fragility of today’s Middle East. We hardly need that reminder with Israel’s retaliation against Hamas for the 7 October horrors spreading into its third month, the skirmishes between U.S. and Houthi forces in the Red Sea risking escalation, and paralysis of the U.S. political system to respond to anything and everything. It’s not looking good out there, friends, for anyone.

The Trump administration assassinated the Iranian Quds Force leader Suleimani in January 2020 in a drone strike against the believed architect of Shi’ite militia attacks against multiple opponents (inside and out) of Teheran’s Islamic regime. Deemed a terrorist for multiple actions, both Israel and the United States argued Suleimani could trigger further conflict across the region. A towering figure in the Persian Gulf

The curious part of two remotely-triggered bombings at Suleimani’s memorial is the question of who carried out the event. The internal tensions long simmering within the Islamic Republic of Iran, now a forty-five year old regime, appeared from September 2022 through 2023 as women’s rights advocates protested the death of Mahsa Amini over her unwillingness to continue extreme Islamic dress. Teheran confronted major public protests across the country as a new generation, pressured by a poor economy and stiffling cultural rules.

The Islamic government rejects Israel’s right to exist, leading the Israeli Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu to decry Iran’s regime and its intentions over many years. Israel, thus, may—may but unproven—well be the force behind these two bombings yesterday. Undoubtedly, Israel holds Iran accountable for terrorism under the auspices of Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the Occupied Territories. This could be a message that Jerusalem can still reach into Iran if it desires. On the other hand, Israel is rather busy right now with its eradication campaign against Hamas and the growing internal criticisms against the current Jerusalem government as more questions regarding the 7 October events arise . Would these bombings killing 84 people at the memorial of a dead leader be worth the investment of time right now? I am not sure.

The United States might be behind these bombings but we are bound up with the election on the horizon, inability to address foreign aid versus border security pressures, and concerns about Taiwan’s election nine days from now provoking a Chinese reaction among a raft of priorities. It’s also unlikely, in my humble assessment, that the Biden administration would incite troubles for Teheran by killing civilians at a memorial. We tend to target individuals with direct responsibility for international problems: Trump’s Suleimani strike in 2020 and the SEALS mission under Obama against Usama Bin Laden in 2011 as bipartisan examples.

This leads to the tantalising question of whether the turmoil within Iran is closer to the surface than we tend to recognise. The Islamic Revolution occurred in January 1979 when the Shah fled overseas ‘for medical attention’, replaced by religious zealot Ayatollah Khomeini. The religious authorities transformed the society dramatically but almost half a century later, the future is not a bright one for this burgeoning population. Corruption is endemic as so often occurs when a regime is unaccountable over an extended period, the economy stalled long ago—even with China buying Iran’s petroleum. The rigid dress and cultural norms imposed on generation after generation, curbing options while not providing any indications of hopeful opportunities for the future.

The Amini protests were deep and fairly widespread. While international attention moved on last year to global heat waves and drought, Ukraine and Russia redux, and various other issues, Iran remains a society with the building potential for severe turbulence. The mullahs deny this but evidence back to public protests over election fraud a decade ago, along with broader discontent in 2017 and 2021, then those following Amini’s death in government hands. All is not copacetic in this vast nation of more than 86 million.

The Iran will ultimately—and I don’t pretend to know when—have a new government as no government—none—rules in perpetuity. The bombings yesterday may well be the work of foreign agents as Teheran claims. At the same time, we may be seeing the drip drip drip of a harsh regime without support unable to address growing unrest.

It’s so seductive to see that ending of the Iranian repressive state in exclusively positive terms. Yet, all actions create consequences, many of which we don’t want to see. Khomeini had been the primary opposition figure, exiled for years before he reentered Iran in early 1979. He was a single figure around whom a nation coalesced to create a post-Shah government. It’s easy to forget how unpopular that figure was, a vain man who ruled as an authoritarian with more pro-western but still strong nationalist positions.

Few things are as unsettling to me as hearing that things cannot get worse so we should replace XX leader. Things can always almost always get worse, although Mao, Stalin, and Hitler stand alone as pretty evil creatures who killed literally millions upon millions. But, the process of creating a subsequent governing regime is almost always messy. Without a single opposition figure, determining who to lead and where to go is much harder than it sounds. Case after case illustrate this yet we continue falling prey to the dream that getting rid of poor and/or oppressive leaders will solve the problems they generate because a man (or woman) on a white horse will ride in to fix it all. Far from always, I fear.

Additionally, Iran is built on the legacy of the Persian empire. The history of that national narrative extended as far east as India and throughout the eastern Mediterranean. Why would we assume that any post-Islamic government would not still carry those aspirations, and associated interests, forward? Seems fanciful to me but perhaps I am jaded.

The future of the Middle East remains as cloudy as today’s Annapolitan dawn.

My hope is that we as a nation, in conjunction with allies and partners but mindful each state has its particular interests, navigate the future with analysis rather than hoping pixie dust and assassinate will curb problems. That is not reality nor has it ever been. The generations of Shi’ite/Sunni religious disputes, nationalism bred by different languages, histories and cultures, the egos of political aspirants regionally and globally, and economic and climate shifts undermining all we have held dear for generations all will continue day in and day out. We need be constantly assessing so we recognise how contexts are changing, often to undermine our assumptions. Great powers often fail when they ignore these realities, assuming their raw power wins over everything else.

Not so much.

I have written every single day since I began Actions Create Consequences 14 months ago today. It’s my honour that any of you read my columns. I deeply welcome your thoughts in response, redirection, or rebuttal. I say that as I mean it. I especially thank those supporters who pledge resources to support me; that means so much as a professional.

I may not have a column tomorrow as I may not have internet connection. Have no fear: I shall return. Be well and be safe. FIN

‘Iranian cities hit by anti-government protests’, bbcnews.com, 29 December 2017, retrieved at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42512946

Weronika Strzyzynska, “Iranian woman dies ‘after being beaten by morality police’ over hijab law”, theguardian.org, 16 September 2022, retrieved at https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/sep/16/iranian-woman-dies-after-being-beaten-by-morality-police-over-hijab-law