it's been a tough week

war in Ukraine, Russian style

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine this past several days evidence willingness to go big, go bad, and to go for generalized brutality rather than a pinpoint approach. We tend to think we can be precise, though often the fog and friction of war make that impossible. But Vlad and his boys rarely try.

I confessed last week I did not open a paper, website, or anything newsy while venturing through Scottish Games and English gardens but it seems that events over the past week are taking a great deal of air out of Kyiv and its supporters’ balloons. Then again, 11,520 civilian deaths in any conflict would deflate any society, except perhaps the Russians themselves after their horrific losses during the “Great Patriotic War” we call World War II.

The death of a Ukrainian military pilot last week in an F-16 was the first blow. The cause of this highly visible loss remains unclear but the plane had only arrived from the west earlier in August. The well known pilot did not appear victim of a Russian attack, making the entire incident another reminder of Ukraine’s incredible vulnerability as it relies on others for long-term strategic assistance. The Air Force commander lost his job when Zelenskyy sacked him following the loss.

This week’s missile attacks, obviously intended to disrupt not only the daily lives in Poltava but also the military academy with its specialization on electronic warfare, more broadly killing more than four dozen civilians. The missile attacks, one of the Kremlin’s most effective mechanisms, thread back to the beginning of this conflict in late February 2022 with no signs Vlad will abandon them. They create the sense of vulnerability he so desperately seeks to wear down Ukrainian resistance.

The Russians, like the Chinese, are mindful of their history as a big power. I deliberately did not use the term great power because that isn’t what is key here, though I have no doubt that Vlad the Impaler or Xi Jinping would both gladly use the term great in the empirical and geographic meanings. Even a cursory understanding of Russian military behavior highlights a determination to beat adversaries into absolute submission, pure and simple.

Russia faces a declining population and is under heavy international sanction but still has resources which provide it convoluted approaches to funding. It also has its own crude, by our standards, arms production facilities, though indications are that its “allies” China and the DPRK are providing weapons among other aid.

Ukraine still has considerable international support as a blameless victim two and a half years into the conflict. Delays in the arms transfers and assistance promised by the Biden administration but thwarted primarily by House Republicans arrived long after Kyiv sought. The Ukrainian military’s surprise offensive into Russia remains a defiant action to menace Vlad’s confidence while diverting his troops from the offense into a more defensive position, but one has to wonder about sustaining operations inside Russian territory for an extended period.

The attacks on the military academy in Poltava and more recent generalized rocket aggression remind of the Kremlin’s ability to return to some offensive actions with danger—and predictability. Whether he fears domestic disappointment, having sold this as a historic return to Russia’s greatness, or merely fury at Zelenskyy’s temerity to act across the border, Vlad’s actions show a leader willing to use whatever means and tactics he has (so far short of nuclear weapons) for a shock value, if nothing else. That ever present Russian obsession with going big sends a message ever looming over the struggle. It’s baked in to the psyche of generations ofRussian leaders as a method of maintaining their control, if not forcing the global community towards their preferences. It also has its psychological value with dissenters at home, of course.

Ukrainians are seeing a cabinet reshuffle in hopes of finding a fix for the threat destroying the infrastructure and terrorizing citizens. Cabinet shuffles always strike me as less important than meets the eye as they usually involve shifting people from seat to seat rather than introducing new blood—and new ideas into national security discussions. But they illustrate action for people under attack, providing an oft-futile hope the improvement of the governing officials can somehow translate into improvements on the battlefield.

In the end, Ukraine may well defeat Russia, though that appears less likely with time. Some argue this war increasingly appears a long-drawn out stalemate rather than a victory for either side. That presupposes the west continues supporting Kyiv with increasingly more financial and military support. Should FPOTUS win in November, that would seem highly unlikely. Europeans, each state with its own domestic pressures, could well tire of their thus far strong support to Kyiv as well. But we cannot straight-line the election nor its ramifications anymore than we can say whether Zelensky or Vlad will ultimately prove victorious.

The people of Ukraine, the country’s historic sites, and its general health, however, are suffering with no end in sight. Stamina and perseverance are amazing and vital but one has to wonder if they are also sustainable with no apparent end in this conflict.

Even if Kyiv wins, how long will it take for a new onslaught against an independent Ukraine, one bound to come if history provides us any guide?

It is not a pretty picture nor does an unequivocal end appear certain.

Thoughts? Observations? Questions? I welcome any and all feedback on Ukraine. Please feel free to circulate if you find this of value. Thank you for taking time to read it. Thank you to the subscribers who make such a difference in this work. Have you considered subscribing to Actions Create Consequences?

it was a beautiful sunrise. I later had a hummingbird delight me on the balcony where I have a fuchsia it found interesting. But, I leave you with a picture of another visitor, a pollinator, at the speedwell out front yesterday.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Mallory Moench, “Zelensky sacks Ukraine Air Force chiefs after F-16 crash”, BBC News, 31 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1m0jvd4m3zo

Eve Sampson, “A Timeline of some of the Deadliest Attacks in Ukraine’s War with Russia”, NewYorkTimes.com, 4 September 2024, retrieved at https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-russia-strikes-deaths.html