Photographs of Vlad the Impaler signing a mutual defense treaty with Kim Jong-un appeared yesterday. Thirty-five years ago today, Americans still overwhelmingly viewed the Soviet Union as an existential threat because of its vast nuclear arsenal. We had the bulk of the U.S. Army in Germany, always alert to a Soviet Red Army push across the continent to subjugate western European democracies. Yes, by mid-June of 1989, cracks in the feared Soviet ‘Iron Curtain’ were appearing as individuals were making successful escapes into Austria but those were onsies and twosies rather than the dismantling of the wall five months later. Within three years, the Soviet Union itself no longer existed. Russia struggled for most of the next decade under a drunk, populist president while its satellite republics chose independent paths, including Ukraine becoming a nascent democracy. Vlad emerged the dominant figure, never relinquishing power in the intervening quarter century. The past thirty-five years provide ample evidence that straight-lining outcomes is folly as who would Hanover predicted this state of affairs?
This remnant of a nation we feared had the ideological wherewithal to subjugate the world is at war still against the west but with a declining population, a stagnant economy built almost exclusively on exporting carbon-based economy, and this leader seeking to recreate history to embolden his people. These are hardly indicators of a superpower.
Vlad the Impaler recently won yet another term as head of state but rules as a leader with shallow support in a kleptocratic system. Authoritarians, such as Vlad and the third-generation North Korean dictator Kim, host lavish ceremonies and make sweeping proclamations but these are self-serving moves to project their personal power while erasing their individual failures rather than for the benefit of their citizens.
The crux of Vlad’s visit to Pyongyang is his need for additional sources for weapons to battle Ukraine. As the conflict reaches the 30 month mark next week, Russia depends on China for support but would also like to broaden its sources for arms to prevent a weapons pipeline shutdown. The Wall Street Journal noted that Vlad rebuilt his ‘war machine’ by tapping into U.S. adversaries. Joe Biden’s efforts to sustain a coalition to support Kyiv are proving, thus far, remarkably resilient, to Vlad’s clear frustration. Actions create consequences: allies stuck together but Vlad found alternatives out of desperation. Who really wants a friendship with Kim? Seriously?
Kim, for his part, always need links—to anyone. His pathetic nation operates on personal whims, saddled with his family’s pillaging of what few resources the DPRK has while the population struggles through persistent deprivation of decades’ duration. It’s pathetic that Kim’s greatest export is weapons rather than something more substantive to provide for further economic expansion which might benefit those he rules with an iron fist.
The mutual defense agreement likely will never come into play as it’s hard to imagine the democracies attacking either of these states directly. But, dictatorships manipulate language so any DPRK or Russian attack on western allies would become a ‘defensive’ action. Americans are split on Russia itself, evidenced by a substantial portion of the nation resisting arms assistance to Kyiv as it fights against Moscow’s war.
Xi Jinping remains vital to both Vlad and Kim as China’s wealth currently supports these recalcitrant players advancing anti-American actions which coincide with Beijing’s aspirations. China provides assistance to the DPRK and Russia yet this ‘axis of odiousness’ could make Beijing uncomfortable because it calls attention to China’s relations with undesirable regimes. This could reduce the respect Beijing craves to justify CCP rule. Time will tell as international politix doesn’t move in a straight line, as we have discussed.
It’s a noteworthy agreement but not one likely to change the course of human events; yet it is not mere blather since Russia and the DPRK still have nuclear weapons and delivery systems and their leaders demand international attention. Like so much in the global system, it’s worth us being aware of amid so many other on-going events
Perhaps more relevant today are the soaring global temperatures on this longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere when we shift from spring into summer, as if we needed to hear that. Temperatures in Delhi yesterday were 50 degrees Centrigrade, or 122 degrees Fahrenheit for those of us who don’t do everyone else’s measurements. Delhi is hardly a small town. It’s hard to imagine, if you’ve ever been there, how the ramshackle electrical system can support the power demand this must generate. India is hardly alone, either.
Much more immediate for 70+ million Americans is the current heat dome overlaying so much of the country. Bangor, Maine expects a heat index of 106 today. No, that is not a typo. These are threatening conditions. Fires are beginning out west with perhaps another four months’ duration of heat. We all recall the years when vast swaths of the nation confronted that spread with fire crews depleted day by day.
More people die of dangerous high temperatures than any other climate event in the United States. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods are eye-catching but the day-to-day escalating heat afflicts those with respiratory, heart, and other chronic health conditions. (Check on your neighbours, please.) Actions create consequences is clearly at play as we live in a more challenging physical environment than at any point in our lifetimes.
I mourn somewhat the longest day of every year as I detest the shorter light of winter. I know that is months away but also recognize its inevitability. Shortened amounts of light preclude the persistence of beauty in our lives outdoors. This fuschia resides on our balcony, bringing many smiles.
Please check on neighbors who are alone. Stay hydrated and indoors, if possible. If I. Texas and other areas with abundant water, make sure you have the oars for your rowboats. Be safe and be well. FIN
Warren Strobel and Michael Gordon, ‘How Putin Rebuilt Russia’s War Machine with Help from U.S. Adversaries’, WSJ.com, 19 June 2024, retrieved at https://www.wsj.com/world/how-putin-rebuilt-russias-war-machine-with-help-from-u-s-adversaries-1ea6c2d1?mod=world_lead_pos5