menacing bike riders

The CCP and its fears

President-elect Trump is selecting unabashed critics of the People’s Republic of China by floating Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and appointing Congressman Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, both Florida Republicans. Beijing likely won’t find either man appealing but that is not Trump’s concern nor that of most Americans.

What does this mean in practice? I honestly don’t know how the new administration will translate concerns in policy but fully understand these people are seventy days away from having to do anything besides develop their ideas. Both men seriously consider China a major threat to the United States, based on their previous statements in Congress which garnered each the “China hawk” label. I don’t find either appointment surprising, though I know far less knowledgeable of Waltz than of the Florida senator.

I suspect each is harshest on the current leadership in Beijing, though I am not entirely clear how far the CCP positions on the United States (or anything else) are from the average Yang or Min on the street in Chengdu or Jinan. Put differently, I am not sanguine that our differences are merely with the current leadership as I think our two countries worries about being under the other’s thumb.

But, the CCP under the Fifth Generation leader Xi Jinping tries to assert its role as a world leader through many foreign policy projects and positions that we find distasteful. I suspect Rubio, Waltz, and any other Trump (like Biden) officials will attempt to corral those ambitions. But the adversarial stance is baked into the relationship these days as if it weren’t always.

At the same time, the fear and ever mounting weakness of the CCP with regard to their own people was on full display this weekend when officials terminated a forty mile bicycle ride between Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Seriously? Bicylists? The Party went into full anxiety mode over tens of thousands of bicyclists.

The cause for shutting down the excursion, of course, was the same as any other potential “threat”, a.k.a. gathering, that unnerves Party officials. This is why they so carefully monitor online activity or break up any notable (numbers undefined) congregation of citizens, even if genuinely spontaneous, for whatever reason: being petrified that the cause for assembly could easily morph into aggregated anger at the Party. Under Xi, where loyalty to Party (defined as his) orthodoxy is even more important than it has been since Mao, I would bet that the trigger for shutting down events is probably lower than ever for fear of upsetting Xi. But that is merely conjecture on my part.

This is the Party claiming to be a rejuvenating force for the Chinese nation? Oh, please. This is a bunch of old men who still dye their hair to prevent acknowledging they are aging, wear carbon-copy western suits and red ties, and nod at the appropriate time when Xi Jinping proclaims anything ranging from turtle soup being overcooked to the patriotic need for women to have more babies to inalienable expectation of the Chinese people to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. This most definitely is not, repeat not a political party sure of its popular support and legitimacy.

The CCP, however, does appear to have support from those it rules by most indications; wishful thinking on our part doesn’t change that factoid. Evidence of what occurs on chat rooms often reinforces support for Beijing’s decisions, even if not with esteem for local party officials. Actions abroad that put China in a bad light, such as tension with the Philippines over the South China Sea or, much more commonly, with Japan over virtually anything, usually engender spontaneous vocal support. Domestic decision-making, particularly on the economic model, may create greater challenges for the CCP but foreign affairs usually garners patriotic proclamations of Xi and the boys making China great again.

The bike ride, which originally earned the People’s Daily approval as exemplifying youthful exhuberance, by all indicators was a whim begun early this past summer. Originating in the Hunan provincial capital of Zhengzhou, it led riders over forty miles to the ancient city of Kaifeng to consume soup. Even though the riders displayed their patriotic vigor with flags and appropriate slogans, the growing mass of young bodies proved too much for the Party officials to tolerate. This past weekend ended the grand ride as Party officials cited a danger of thousands of non-motorized vehicles along the roadway.

As true with so much in contemporary China, it’s hard to imagine this won’t yet again tweak at least some degree of frustration at the Party’s need to exert control over their lives. China is a society where the concept of order supersedes any other aspirations but people do tire of CCP fears, pure and simple. So the frustration will fall below the threshold of action that might truly incite problems but the Party cannot allow even the most unlikely threats to unanswered.

Any remarks, particularly by incoming Washington officials, alluding to regime change will exacerbate Party paranoia. The Party believes, truly reckons, its role in advancing the Chinese people has been immeasurable and unassailable over the past three quarters of a century. Yet it knows that its genuine national support is thin. The faces atop the CCP may evolve but the iron clad demand that no one challenge that authority and jurisdiction remains steadfast. The CCP is more extreme than most bodies in believing it can maintain power forever, which is so unlikely as to be laughable on its surface, but they also exert much effort to satisfy the needs and desires of the populace. But they cannot bring themselves to relax from hyper-vigilance on each gathering or any dangerous syllable anyone utters because it disputes their carefully developed narrative, one based on fanciful goals and myth.

Doubts here at home about China do not equate to conducting policy steps to defend out interests. I am not criticizing the incoming administration as I simply don’t have any idea what they will do or how they believe they can defend our interests. But I am sadly confident the CCP, fearful of everyone at home and abroad, will be determined to maintain control over the country regardless of anything else. That could make bilateral ties a fascinating, if treacherous, dance.

I welcome any thoughts on the CCP, our relationship with China, our aspirations, or any other topics. I don’t have all of the answers by any stretch but think the evidence of CCP angst is compelling beyond belief. I don’t know that anxiety is necessarily helpful for us, either, but you may have alternate thoughts so send them my way.

An update on my war footing from Saturday. I got about a dozen helpful, if not humorous, responses and suggestions. If I made you spit out your tea laughing, extra points! But I appreciate the advice and commiseration. The photographs below are what I settled on for now. This will be the approach for the winter. Paraphrasing Scarlett O’Hara, spring is another day…

Please feel to share this column if you find it valuable. Thank you for taking time to read this or any other Actions Create Consequences, especially those of you who subscribe.

The cool air really descended this morning so it was a crisp dawn.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Isabelle Qian and Yan Zhuang, “Why Did Tens of Thousands of Chinese Students go on Night Bike Rides?”, NewYorkTimes.com, 11 November 2024, retrieved at https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/world/asia/china-bike-ride.html