Missing the point

A closing thought on Taiwan

Numerous commentators created headlines over the past thirty-six hours that the people of Taiwan defied Beijing by holding elections. Thatstrikes me as completely missing the point of our own stance: if Taiwan is a democracy, the of course they held their Legislative Yuan and presidential elections on 13 January.

As I commented yesterday, the island’s population has been voting for legislative representation for forty-four years while direct election of the president began in 1996. Beijing has been pressuring Taiwan’s voters all the way along: Beijing does not like to lose face by not offering its own population the same de facto opportunity. The CCP carefully scripts sham elections to say they are elections but the outcomes are known well in advance. Taiwan’s threat to the mainland is a threat to existing power structures, currently in the CCP but likely in any subsequent regime as well (I am far from convinced a successor government would approximate representative governance).

The CCP believes Taiwan will reunify but they are growing impatient for fear of growing Taiwanese self-identification as non-Chinese. Clearly many on the island do see Taiwanese nationalism as central but that is far from a universal belief. But this election was about more than the mainland. It was about the people’s preferences for determining the island’s future. If you don’t vote, you don’t really have any voice in governance. Beijing’s threats were really beside the point.

Many in Taiwan want a greener society while others focus on other societal challenges. That was the real heart of the election, not defying the mainland. A considerable number see the mainland as a paper tiger (not necessarily a good view but they are entitled to it) so why cower at Beijing’s threats?

The Taiwan Strait draws the world’s focus to a multitude of options for the 24 million people on the island. While today many on the island would like to state formally that it is independent, it is not clear that will always be the case. Conditions, such as U.S.support, could erode. The prospect of a conflict on the island could drive the one-child families of Taiwan to reconsider the Will to fight. The leaders in Taibei and Beijing could contrive a solution for each side to save face.

But, we should celebrate Taiwan continuing its democratic rule. The continuity of representative governance is cause enough to celebrate and to respect—and we should not be the least surprised it happened this weekend.

None of that guarantees a peaceful future but who thought in 2000 that Putin would invade Ukraine? Who thought the leaders of Japan and Korea, with President Biden’s nudges, would pare down their nations’ nationalist rhetoric in the face a perceived growing Chinese threats?

Few, if any, policies follow a straight trajectory with a known outcome. Taiwan’s democratic votes are a notable case of pretty clear cut outcomes so far. Time will tell for the future but, as Buddhism stresses, nothing is permanent. Americans aren’t wild hearing that, however.

Thoughts on this or any other columns? I welcome any and all comments, questions, rebuttals, and suggestions. Thank you to the paid subscribers.

Be well, stay, warm, and be safe. FIN