Revanchism

A painful reminder of history's power

Adam Oler of the National War College will discuss Israel between 1200 and 1300 eastern tomorrow. If you need the link, please let me know but it’s been circulated twice, most recently in the NOTES of Substack earlier this week.

I was reminded how easily we forget history today when I heard interesting a European analyst comment on the conflict in Ukraine: Putin is only one of many who believe it must forever be a part of Russia. It’s easy to forget that revanchist views are generally the fundamental beliefs of far more than a single individual.

We saw some of that mentality in the Balkans in the 1990s when the conflicts there resurrected centuries’ old defeats, victories, and trauma. Russia and Kyiv certainly have a long history. Animosities between India and Pakistan seem to fall into that category as well. I’m sure you can think of other cases.

I frequently make this very point about China’s self-narrative on demanding Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland but I had forgotten it with regard to Vlad the Impaler. This matters because it’s a warning about conflicts likely to recur. Kyiv and its citizens likely know that problem well but hope this time is different. Hope, however, is not a strategy or always successful.

It’s so seductive for us in the United States to believe the last 77 years of the post-World War II world are permanent but evidence to the contrary grows, I fear. It matters because our ahistorical tendencies lead us to commit to defensive activity of which we might well tire over the years. FIN