revanchism and nuclear bombs?
the Russian mess, again
Prigozhin is in Belarus, according to Putin. No, he is in Russia, according to Lukachenko. Neither one is known for accuracy, honesty, or trust.
As far as I can tell, he is not in the Kremlin. But, he was certainly interested in getting into the Kremlin.
The inconsistent information regarding Wagner mercenary group head and erstwhile Putin chef Yvegeny Prigozhin would be a great Saturday Night Live skit if it weren’t pertinent a place where loose nuclear weapons really could make a difference.
The future of the Russian Federation and surrounding environs appears less clear than ought make us feel secure. Some analysts believe Prigozhin really did not offer a serious challenge to Vladimir Putin’s determination to control the vast Federation’s future yet Putin’s paranoia has been increasingly on display well before to the hystrionics last month. Anyone outsid of Vlad’s room with the huge table probably worries him.
The bottom line is that Russia is an authoritarian regime with a decrepit military, a legacy of nuclear weapons which provide an expired warranty of great power status, and accumulated humiliation. Putin may have been a weight lifter and a crafty KGB agent earlier in this life but he is today a revanchist seeking to return to a glorious period from the recesses of his distorted mind.
The Ukraine war reaches the eighteen month mark later in July; doesn’t it seem much longer ago than 24 February 2022 that it began? Many houses in Annapolis retain the blue and yellow flags denoting vigourous support for the invaded and resolute Ukrainians. I am confident that most Americans still find that nation’s survival one worth assisting even in the face of mounting exhaustion at the announcement of yet further aid packages as President Zelenskyy requests ever more assistance. Kyiv’s spring/summer offense began later than expected and is slogging. Slogging has been the key to this destructive conflict but neither the invaders or the protectors seem ready to back down.
As the theater on the streets of Moscow continues, one has to wonder how the Russian military leadership continues supporting Putin. Sure, he is the fellow who put them (many of them as it has turned out rather than a single saviour for the great Russian Motherland despite Putin’s hopes) in power but his actions are also making clear the incredible weaknesses of this ‘great power’. Russian casualties mount, the economy staggers under international sanctions, and Russia’s fate is wrapped up with other semi-pariah states such as Iran and China.
How long will the Russians let this go on? Bashar el-Assad still rules brutally in Syria because Putin supported him. No one is providing Russia the comparable aid. China and Russia have carefully crafted summits but Beijing remains limited in bringing itself into closer ties with anyone, including Moscow, because China’s strategic culture does not endorse alliances. China protects its interests. When that process coincides with the interests of others, fine. But Beijing is determined to protect its sovereignty to prevent hampering their own actions because of allies’ pressures. Alliances always mean compromise. China is not really a compromising kind of place.
Russian military leaders seem the most likely to oust Vlad the Impaler when they run out of other options. Vlad locks up his opponents but it’s harder to incarcerate the guys you need running the war. I am not a Russia specialist so I don’t know how valid our unspoken expectation that Russia’s people will bear any cost because they have done so before (Stalingrad during World War II comes to mind). The ouster of Putin could be rapid. It also could be no improvement over the current ruler.
In short, we simply don’t know what is ahead. We have to continue putting our interests front and center. At present, I believe supporting Ukraine’s sovereign existence is in our interests. I am, however, concerned that the future probably will be much uglier than the past which says something.
Additionally, they have those pesky nuclear weapons which desperate people, whomever they are, might use. Mercifully, the overwhelming majority of military personnel globally understand the horrors of nuclear bombs, thus I am less worried about them using the bombs in a fit of rage. But the world is full of so many unscrupulous actors.
Meanwhile, it’s steamy and uncomfortable here. Probably there too. Be thankful for air conditioning if you have it. Nobel Prize for those a/c people, eh?FI
N