Spotted Lantern Flies & assumptions
crowdsourcing but testing
If you all remember Tuesday, it was several days ago thought it may have felt like a lifetime if you are in hot climes. My column that afternoon was on leaving things alone where I assumed one of my photographs taken in Central Park contained a colourful spider. If we didn’t see a danger from this spider crossing a twig, why bother it?
Thursday I responded to two people who raised questions with me about topics I had discussed. Eagle-eyed Jo wondered if the spider was an invasive Lantern Fly which we hope become extinct before they can do much more damage in our folliage. I opined that the photographs I found in tracking down after she asked did not look like what my photograph showed. I didn’t say matter closed but assumed so.
This afternoon another equally astute reader forwarded me a note from Hollabaugh Bros., a marvelous business surrounding apples and pears north of Gettyburg, Pennsylvania. In the Facebook posting, Hollabough notes the wretched things are showing up on their farm, enclosing photographs at several stages of development.
Wouldn’t you know it? The Late Nymph photograph, taken at a decidedly different angle than mine, had the same colours and markings: that bloody spider I saw was indeed a Spotted Lantern Fly according to the advisory Hollabaugh forwarded from Pennsylvania State University’s Agriculture Science College. (I am not having any luck attaching it).
Well, fooey on me.
Yay for Jo for asking and for Susan who forwarded me the Hollabaugh note after reading the columns!!
The lesson here is that I had read about the Lantern Fly but did not pay attention to what I was reading. I even read it more than once as the Annapolis paper has mentioned it at least two summers after these wrteched invaders appeared a couple of years ago. (I didn’t even realise their name is Spotted Lantern Flies but Susan’s forwarded FB item made that point). It’s not enough to read something; humans have to register what they read. I failed completely on this second point, though I had never seen a picture of them until Jo’s query forced me to look into them.
But I should have realised that pretty little spider definitely did look different from a regular old spider (although they are not beings that I watch if I can avoid them). Uh, yes, too different by miles.
Crowdsourcing is a brilliant way to gather many views in a rapid (relatively) period of time. That can be most helpful as in this case, though I am in Annapolis now so I am not likely to encounter that individual menacing fly again.
I recall a book from fifteen years ago called Crowdsourcing by Jeff Howe but I confess that isn’t a topic that resonated with me. I did not read it but sure remember it.
I have always been rather skeptical of the concept as academics have this (often) unfortunate habit of feeling rather confident in both our analytical powers and the idea that expertise plays some beneficial role in these analyses. Ergo, I missed the chance to ask about the picture but assumed it was a harmless spider (if I did not bother it).
My favourite point to students is always that questions matter more than answers yet I forgot to question.
Luckily, the power of people with different assumptions becomes obvious. Jo either knew a couple of these guys from her experiences, or she reads/retains much more closely than I do, or she starts with quite different assumptions. But she was absolutely correct by whatever method she figured out the photograph’s subject. Jo was especially right to ask whether I had considered this.
Susan, remembering the column, is an avid gardener, a keenly analytical person, and quite networked in her community because she is one of the world’s handful (no, this is not hyperbole) of goddesses for raising service dogs so she has many contacts all over, receiving various things from them. Again, her starting assumptions were fresher than mine so when she saw the column and then the Hollabaugh mention of the flies, it fell together for her.
I failed one of the most basic tasks I taught for 30 years by not identifying my assumptions or questioning them. Spotted Lantern Fly 1, Cynthia 0 on this test.
Thank you, Jo and Susan.
Yet I am not saying the crowd is always correct. There is a danger of what political science calls ‘bandwagoning’, or joining a group of people sold on an idea, a solution, or a criticism. This is where evidence comes into play as true in science. As I have said many times before, science has the power of replicating answers based on independent testing of a hypothesis. It’s far from rejecting an idea because a growing chorus likes a different answer. Science involves walking methodically through steps to validate or invalidate a hypothesis.
It’s this process we all need follow as we think about things. What is your hypothesis? Mine was that the spider was harmless yet colourful (apparently it isn’t even a spider, damn it). Think about what you’re assuming, then question assumptions, then requestion them when you’re in learning mode. Or, as yet another reader Larry always says, measure once, measure once again, then cut. Use some evidence for deciding on your choices.
Actions have consequences. This one wasn’t cosmic but any action has that potential.
I close with a delayed beauty from last night. We never got any rain, best I can tell, but we had amazing sunlight in the early evening.
Hoping to see you tomorrow. FIN
Jeff Howe, Crowdsourcing: Why the Power of the Crowd is Driving the Future of Business (New York: Currency, 2008) retrieved at https://www.amazon.com/Crowdsourcing-Power-Driving-Future-Business-ebook/dp/B001BAJ2LQ/ref=sr_1_1?crid=SAZ7KN4ZMVJ6&keywords=crowdsourcing&qid=1689446509&s=books&sprefix=crowdsourcing%2Cstripbooks%2C127&sr=1-1
Lantern Flies according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/resources/pests-diseases/hungry-pests/the-threat/spotted-lanternfly/spotted-lanternfly