Taiwan's location

within the bilateral relationship

What a phenomenal day to have such a beautiful pink, truly pink sunrise and then the warmth this afternoon. Life in the Chesapeake is better than good. I hope the same for you wherever you are.

I attended a major conference today on Sino-U.S. relations at Georgetown University. Under the rules of engagement, I cannot quote the specifics of presenters’ comments but I can give you a flavour on the general theme you probably expect we spent most of our time discussing.

Over 7 hours, I don’t think Taiwan came up half a dozen times. Taiwan was simply not the primary afocus of these speakers’ analyses, though each of the speakers certainly understands the whole of the Taiwan challenge. Indeed, it was not the second, third or fourth topic although it probably hits the top ten for all speakers as they analyse the bilateral state of affairs.

Sino-U.S. relations, dating back to 1776 according to John Pomfret in his 2016 history The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom: 1776 to the Present, include a wide array of topics such as trade, diplomacy, economic development, human rights, religious freedom, and the like but Taiwan is only one of those.

I strongly doubt most Americans grasp that fact.

Indeed, Taiwan is an especially important issue for the people located so close to the MIddle Kingom for historic, geographic, and certainly political reasons like sovereignty. It’s a major concern because of our ambivalent commitment following the shift in diplomatic relations from Taibei to Beijing in 1979, along with the resulting repudiation of the twenty-five year mutual defense treaty between our two peoples. Beijing claims it would not tolerate us recognising a ‘portion of China’ as independent while having diplomatic relations with them. The island is important for many who see Beijing’s ability to use Taiwan as a forward projection point into the western Pacific, though not all analysts see that as particularly crucial. Finally, Taiwan is important to many Americans because we worry about the prospects of a thriving democracy and the people living under that system succumbing involuntarily to forceful reunification with the mainland should Beijing use the People’s Liberation Army in that manner.

But Taiwan is not the only thing that we have going on, like it or not. U.S. trade with China remains important to both countries, despite simultaneous proclamations of intention to curb that trade. Our roles as arguably the two most important states in the United Nations structure, each with both a veto and different aspirations for governance, is also central to how the world is responding to crises. China’s support for Russia or the Iranian petroleum export policy concern and irritate us a great deal. Nuclear weapons are topics that we both worry about. Accidents between our two militaries as their interactions—intended or not—become more frequent as we continue to operate around the world and Beijing increasingly shows its modernisation in new places, leading to greater chances of errors or unintended accidents. Other things bring our nations together or divide us, thus arguing for engagement on some level. The list of topics is rather extensive.

The conference did not discuss all of those topics, either, but I am not sure Americans think about a couple of those concerns regularly.

Which leads me to a question: does Taiwan complicate or clarify our relations with the Middle Kingdom? It’s seductive to assume Taiwan the the crux of our problems but without Taiwan, do we have more shared interests? What are they? Is there any place or any problem for which we could benefit from our bilateral ties? If not, is there reason we should? If we should not, what implications does that condition imply for us—and for them—into the foreseeable future? Is the CCP the sole reason China appears so hard core about preventing Taiwan independence or is this a broader mainland issue altogether?

I raise a host of questions as the complexity of the relationship is vast, as it has always been. Americans for most of the years since 1776 sought to build ties for our national interests yet today we appear to have abandoned that attitude as we assume everything about China is antithetical to our interests. Really? I wonder how hard it would be for us in perpetual tension with China, a country still likely to be twice our population with a big (if not bigger or more rapidly growing) economy in years to come. Plus, doesn’t being an American affect the way we think about the Chinese people as well?

I have no idea how to answer these questions. I raise them because each takes us in a different direction—Actions create consequences—depending on how we answer the question yet we so often focus almost exclusively on Taiwan as the central theme of the relationship. Maybe you will convince me it is the central aspect so let me know.

Thank you for reading ACC today and any day you do. Please feel free to circulate this to anyone you think would appreciate it. I welcome your thoughts. If you are a subscriber, you can leave me a message in the chat for Substack.

I look forward to your thoughts.

Be well and be safe. FIN

John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom: 1776 to the Present. New York: Henry Holt, 2016.