the skeptical column of the ledger

a transformed Middle East?

One of the most iconic of the Beatles’ songs remains "The Long and Winding Road." Most relevant for today is the repeated reference to the often painful, enduring nature of life, obviously subject to tumult, hope, and disappointment. Those words reverberate to me as I see references today to the transformation underway in the Middle East.

I receive numerous news summaries daily to stay informed about different perspectives, stories, and concerns, in part to write this column, but more importantly, because that's what responsible news consumption requires. Today's Wall Street Journal "10 Point Update" asserts unequivocally: "Israel is calling the shots in the Middle East now." Similarly, ForeignPolicy.com touted a session this morning on a redrawn Middle East.

I remain skeptical as of the 16th of June for several reasons.

Israel and Iran are engaging in the initial skirmishes of head-to-head conflict that each society’s leadership has anticipated for decades. The Israeli government under Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu long feared the advent of a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran; the past decade most certainly must have witnessed multiple senior U.S. foreign policy officials talking Jerusalem (including during years when someone besides Netanyahu led the Knesset) out of a preemptive military attack both for fear of inflaming Iranian nationalism leading to further Hezbollah (Iranian-sponsored terrorists in neighboring Lebanon) and because success in destroying all portions of the Iranian nuclear program would be difficult. The Obama administration attempted to negotiate away Tehran's nuclear wishes, ultimately becoming one of several signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the Islamic Republic. The accord promised to lift many long-imposed sanctions en lieu of the mullahs going nuclear. President Trump subsequently nullified the U.S. endorsement of the accord and began negotiations with Tehran.

The mullahs have shown disdain, at best, for the international system over 46 years in power, seeding both Israeli and U.S. doubts about any willingness to carry out any agreements, especially regarding such weapons of mass destruction.

Islamic religious extremists virtually eliminated the once-vibrant Jewish presence that had endured for centuries as a scene-setter for deteriorating relations from the late 1970s. Then, the Islamic Republic's decades-long support for Hezbollah terrorists killing Israelis fueled hatred in Israel. More recently, tit-for-tat exchanges between the two states when Israeli operations against Hamas grew to target Hezbollah last year set the two on a collision course. This is not the first time they have exchanged missile attacks.

I fully understand why people are beginning to discuss, albeit in hushed tones at 0630 on Monday, regime change in Iran. The Islamic Republic is an odious, menacing regime for Israelis, but especially for the Iranian women it subjugates or any of its nationals seeking freer lifestyles. Nearly half a century of mullah rule in the large country has left them notably broken economically while dispirited as a society. Perhaps most outsiders forget, but Iran is the heir to the lavish Persian culture of centuries past, or, more likely, they misunderstand that the country has the 17th largest landmass on the planet containing a population of over 92 million.

Did the world learn nothing over the past quarter century about how fraught regime change is? The list of failures is tragically long in this millennium alone: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Haiti, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo come to mind immediately, without much effort to think of other eras. Just because you don't like the leadership of a government does not mean things will improve when he is replaced. Governments operate within a system; ask the Cubans about that. Revising a system is a multi-generational task rather than a short-term endeavor. The world isn't all that good at long-term commitments.

In short, I am a doubter that we can know the context after this targeted activity will result in Israeli aspirations dictating the region's future. If nothing else, it's far too soon to tell what will occur or what it will take to sustain the type of change necessary to accomplish this.

By the way, what does Israel seek here? If the answer is a set of rulers less hostile, I think that we are even further from the Jerusalem-dominant region. The Shah was more tolerant of Israel but had his own blind spots, not the least of which was about how to effectively govern his own people.

My skepticism results from a couple of realities. Israel's reputation in the global community could not be much lower than today, following the horrific pain it inflicted over the past 20 months on the Palestinian people. While Hamas carried out a massacre against hundreds on the 7th of October 2023, Israel has starved and displaced millions of Palestinians, with the world watching in horror. Too few recall in Europe today that Israel was the initial victim, so strong have been the condemnations of its actions against civilians.

As I discussed last week, Prime Minister Netanyahu's vested interest in perpetuating Israeli actions abroad to ensure he retains office is clear—and troubling. As I noted in "The Power of Dynamics" on the 13th of June,

"It's the dynamics worth considering because of how they help explain motivations and timing. Netanyahu, a political survivor in his third term as the nation's leader, is under mounting pressure as polling indicates that the Israeli public is increasingly demanding accountability and answers for the past several years. During that time, Israelis suffered the most devastating terrorist attack since the state's founding in 1948. The Israeli retaliation following the attack has been merciless but costly: the nation is now a pariah, a status far beyond that of the Hamas instigators, again the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (and ultimately broader enemies to include Hezbollah (Iranian proxies) in southern Lebanon) are seen in many parts of the world. The Prime Minister refuses to indicate the military campaign, 20 months after the original horrific attack, is close to completing its objective of eradicating the Palestinian fighters if that is the goal; others wonder if Bibi intends to exterminate the Palestinians altogether.

Netanyahu, propped up by right-wing extremists determined to expand Jewish power beyond recent historical lines, relies on Orthodox and radical parties to form a coalition with which to retain a majority in the Knesset. The many parties have different priorities but primarily operate together on the principle that Israeli Orthodox preferences ought to reshape this secular state in exchange for their support to the Prime Minister. Netanyahu feels to retain office rather than confront widespread Israeli public inquiries about his behavior. He is attempting to avoid accountability on preparations his government used in advance of the 7th of October attack, much less questions about response time as the entire sequence of events relating to this terrorism unfolded."

Nothing is different today than that set of conditions in Israel, causing millions around the globe to doubt, naïvely, cynically, or ignorantly, the motivation for the Israeli actions. As the conflict against Hamas, Palestinians, and Hezbollah continues, I find it difficult to expect some massive turnaround in public opinion on the Middle East "street" to embrace Jerusalem's actions. It could happen, but Netanyahu's Israel appears underwater in what the world would support.

We have heard for most of this decade that Riyadh and Jerusalem were going to put aside their long-standing differences to sign a treaty assuring the Saudis recognize the legitimacy of the Jewish state. It still has not occurred, nor do we hear it is imminent, despite American officials believing we have the best relationship ever with the Arab leaders around the Gulf. Yes, those leaders want to reduce a Persian threat against the Arab Middle East. Still, the fundamentals of distrust between the average Jewish and Islamic citizens in this complex region remain strong since the Arabs are unwilling to abandon the Palestinians, tragically including Hamas. Washington is on the sidelines of these dynamics as our avowed position to displace the Palestinians in a post-Gaza war scenario can only mean their relocation to other Arab communities, a raft of countries who long ago washed their hands of the stateless Palestinians to assure they remained in Palestine. None of the Arab countries want these poverty-stricken refugees any more than in 1948; why does anyone think that bringing down Teheran's capacity will ameliorate this situation? I am open to being convinced, but I don't see the cause and effect working out that way.

One further puzzle from this seeming euphoria regarding Israel's actions. If the Iranian threat was as dire as portrayed, is it credible that Israel so fundamentally transformed the context in a three-and-a-half-day campaign primarily involving drones? The Iranians have had decades to watch Saddam Hussein's facilities dismantled all of the way back to the 1981 Osiraq preemptive strike (if you've forgotten, Israel attacked the relatively primitive Iraqi nuclear facility to retard Saddam's ability to produce fissile material) to put at least a portion of their atomic production underground, out of reach for outsiders. Do we have conclusive evidence these strikes ended all aspects of the program? How would we know for sure (though Israel seems to place spies better than do most countries)? I doubt it, but I acknowledge that I am not reading classified material of any sort, so perhaps they did. But, I remain unconvinced.

My greatest fear is that this conflict will escalate because these events stoke public demands for greater retaliation, particularly within Iran. Israel is the gutsiest state in the region, surviving despite three-quarters of a century of hostility, war, and hatred against its people and the nation's existence. Israelis live in a region where millions of their neighbors seek to end their existence; an unenviable condition day-in and day-out yet they persist in living in the land many believe can provide the greatest protection to Jews. Israel remains at its core the epicenter of hope for the Jewish people.

Yet, I don't see everyone either acquiescing to Israel's national interests for the region's future or the international community comfortable with what appears to be an aggressive Netanyahu-Far Right Israeli definition of the Middle East. Supposing Israel's decisions are influenced by internal dynamics (as are those of Kenya, Malaysia, or any other country), do the remaining states in the region not prioritize their domestic needs in addition to national interests? Instead, we could see unlikely new, even if temporary partnerships between countries anxious to preclude the enshrinement of a more strident, powerful Israel determining the region's future.

At a minimum, I am worried for fear Israel's security remains precarious with even fewer potential friends overseas these days. For all of the strong commitment to the Jewish state by the Trump administration and some American Christians, anti-Semitism is up dramatically in this country and elsewhere. American Jews are more split on Israel than true in decades. Europeans are harshly anti-Israeli because of the Gaza conflict. Russia, never a friend to Jews over the millennia, harbors sympathy for those anti-Israeli forces.

All of this doubt makes me think we need all be sharper in our analyses of what actions create consequences in the region. Americans, who have power solely over their actions, need to prioritize our goals in the area to ensure we know where we want to support any other states, Israel included. While we have been that nation's primary supporter for almost sixty years, we do not coincide with the Israelis. We would identify areas of common ground, along with shared values and concerns.

As usual, I urge all of us to study the region's history to gain a better understanding of how we arrived here. When we don't know our history, it's easy to retake the same path as if it were the only one available, thus making it the right one. We have the power to validate or invalidate that action if nothing further is done.

I welcome your thoughts, criticisms, comments, or queries on this or any other topic. Thank you for your time. Thanks to the subscribers who invest in this column as you make such a difference.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Jamey Keaten and Laurie Kellman, “With antisemitism rising as the Israel-Hamas war rages, Europe’s Jews worry”, AssociatedPress.com, 26 November 2023, retrieved at https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-antisemitism-europe-massacre-war-protests-1d26266dfd9b2b8dd4c795f420abab47

Peter Kenyon, “How Iran and Israel became archenemies”, NPR.org, 12 April 2024, retrieved at https://www.npr.org/2024/04/12/1244281886/iran-israel-relations-enemies-gaza-war

John Lennon and Paul McCartney, “The Long and Winding Road”, Let It Be (1970), retrieved from beatleslyrics.org at https://www.beatleslyrics.org/index_files/Page10842.htm

Vali Nasr, “A Redrawn Middle East”, ForeignPolicy.com. 16 June 2025, retrieved at https://foreignpolicy.com/live/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BREMINDER%20LIVE%5D%20A%20Redrawn%20Middle%20East?&utm_term=fp_live

Callum Sutherland, “The Rise of Anti-Semitism and Political Violence in the U.S.”, Time.com, 2 June 2025, retrieved at https://time.com/7287941/rise-of-antisemitism-political-violence-in-united-states/

Cynthia Watson, “The Power of Dynamics”, Cynthiawatson.substack.com, 13 June 2025, retrieved at