the strongest of soft power

information matters

I lectured this morning about the Indo-Pacific. Many points mentioned military concerns and a lot of historic experiences which factor into thinking across the vast area of responsibility for the U.S. combatant command headquartered in Honolulu. My favourite question, however, was one about whether we had any more ‘soft power’, a phrase political scientist Joe Nye coined several years back, than does the PRC. I believe we have quite a ‘power advantage’ vis-a-vis that Asian nation.

If we have evidence of any single thing this week, arguably it is indeed the incredible impact of one ‘soft power’ element.

Americans tend to look at conflict or disagreement or even merely differences in interest by focusing on military or economic prowess. Sometimes we compare population numbers, geographic spread, Nobel Prize winners, vaccines administered, and numbers of airports that would accept jumbo jets. Americans prefer measurable quantitative attributes a nation can acquire to influence other states, as weapons, bases overseas, deployments, aid packages, trade balances, economic missions in other countries, and anything we can count. China likes to number things as well.

Theoretically, the ability to count these attributes or items of influence make them more concrete, leading us to know who holds ‘more power’. These are verifiable numbers if someone truly pursues validating the numbers. We like verification as we like right and wrong certainties.

What we have seen this week, however, is the amazing power of a non-quantifiable, amorphous item called information. The Israelis, according to press reports on Tuesday, 17th, bombed a hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds of patients. The story went viral through the instantaneous messaging of the digital age within minutes, if not seconds. By the time Joe Biden’s flight from Andrews Air Force Base departed that afternoon for Jerusalem, the narrative on the hospital bombing was firmly established: Israel was the cause of the murder of hundreds.

For some, this narrative fit a predetermined condemnation of the Jewish state perfectly: Israelis were committing barbaric acts against innocent Palestinians in retaliation for the Hamas attacks on 7 October. For others, this information created an uncomfortable juxtaposition for a democracy under siege but a horrifying one.

Regardless of which reason was at work, the effects of this ‘information’ spread reverberated around the world following the bombing. Istanbul, Ankara, Beirut, Cairo, Amman, Teheran, and cities in the non-Middle East exploded into protests against Israel. The Israeli victims and hostages were forgotten as if a switch were flipped and condemnations became the cause for some sort of retribution against Jerusalem.

Except it was a lie. The War Cabinet in Jerusalem protested immediately after the horror became clear that they had not been involved in the hospital attack, blaming instead a Hamas rocket that went awry. Israeli spokesmen in various world languages addressed the criticism by foreign press, thousands of reporters in Israel ready to report on the anticipated ground invasion of Gaza. President Biden’s arrival the next morning, with clear, unequivocal evidence of an alternate responsibility was too late. U.S. statements to buttress Netanyahu and the IDF’s statements were ignored by many who had heard the prior story. The damage was done.

Biden could not carry out a significant portion of his planned agenda because Arab leaders bent deferred tostreet protestors inflamed by Israel’s purported perfidy. Any residual hope that Netanyahu could resume low visability negotiations with the Saudis or other Arab states regarding the future of increased relations with Israel were already in doubt but this messaging coup killed those hopes entirely for the foreseeable future. It happened so quickly as to be breathtaking. Two days later, the misinformation remains pervasive in many quarters around the world, including in parts of this country.

Information is important not just in foreign affairs. We have long seen absolute repudiation of video facts in the United States as politicians increasingly dispute their own activities by telling an audience to ignore what other information sources report. This is no longer news but it proliferates. We still worry about the misinformation that Russia and other adversaries proliferate in advance of our elections as occurred in 2016.

The advent of Artificial Intelligence only accelerates this trend as the distortion of objective, demonstrable facts can be sub rosa, perhaps done on a 19 year old’s computer or in some massive information ‘boiler room’ operation in a large city like Dallas, Chonqing or a St. Petersburg suburb in the depth of winter.

Part of the issue is that this now so common instrument of soft power is completely integrated into our daily lives. I read a piece yesterday by a woman who described herself as ‘addicted to Instagram, needing the dopamine fix she got from the repeated information snippets crossing her screen and influencing her’ until she took the app off her system. While it sounds extreme, our use of information has become so completely embedded in our daily lives. How often do we each pick up our phones, see a ‘blurb’ on a topic, leaving it to drill down into our minds?

China is not the only country that seeks to use soft power, as I noted above. Our soft power is enormous for many reasons. Publications, songs, movies, and scientific journaux are far more prevalent globally because English is the lingua franca. We had a forty year head start as China did not join the more unpredictable information revolution until far more recently. But, this instrument is so persuasive because of its cognitive changes to our thinking. Information is much harder to control and or evaluate because it is squishier, less regulated, less mediated by authorities (which is why so many people like it), and more open to manipulation.

China seeks to regular information as they seek to control everything else. We don’t take that approach yet I heard a screeching voice today demanding our government do something to assure the Israelis are not further victimised by the information lies.

Information raises the question of who gets the narrative out first How do we, with so many other national priorities, address this without stepping on freedoms of information? What are our obligations? What are our options? Or is this merely one week’s disastrous results for a nation reeling from an attack ten days ago, vulnerable to further undermine its security in a hostile neighbourhood?

I welcome your thoughts on this topic. I believe we have great advantages with sofit power and information yet I may be missing key points. Do you see us in uncharted territory or should we merely carry on with information as a completely supply and demand phenomenon which people will sort out as individuals?

Yet another beautiful day in the Chesapeake. I hope yours was as well. This impressive vessel was moored along the Creek today—someone put in some work on her, didn’t they?

Thank you for pondering these questions as I genuinely believe Actions Create Consequences. Please forward to others if you think they would enjoy it. Thank those who subscribe, in particular, as you motivate me daily.

Be well and be safe. FIN