Tokyo gets a new boss

Will foreigners like his views?

Potentially the most significant news of the week actually came out of Tokyo where the governing Liberal Democrats (LDP) chose Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister. A popular figure among the voters of that island ally, Ishiba hardly has proven himself a shy, retiring violet in his public service, including as Defense Minister.

Up front, I acknowledge that parliamentary systems like Japan’s inherently are prone to more rapid turnover in leadership because the parties are more directly and immediately accountable to the voters. If a leader losses confidence of his party or his voters, then he will lose the ability to govern, usually immediately. In our system, rarely does one actually depart an elected position in between elections unless one must resign from office, as did New York Republican Representative George Santos as he protested innocence over a slew of allegations about this character and behavior. Similarly the only president to actually surrender the office was Richard Nixon but his ouster following Watergate debacle took more than 24 months. In short, parliamentary governing stresses accountability while representative democracy stresses deliberate processes and stability.

First elected to the LDP thirty-eight years ago, Ishiba defeated both a son of a former popular Prime Minister and a woman who would have been a radical break as this conservative society’s initial female in charge of the nation. Japanese voters have retained the LDP as the ruling party for all but four years of the past seven decades, but it is now an aged society with demographic, economic, and security challenges for whomever governs.

Ishiba’s selection is noteworthy to all of us for three primary reasons. He is not a Tokyo-centric politician, representing rural, western Tottori prefecture. I doubt most Americans realize how important outlying areas are in Japan’s complex political environment. Prone to prefer conservative policies, often including protectionism for agricultural interests, Ishiba himself has signaled more nationalist positions during his tenure as both Ministers of Agriculture and Defense. He announced this week a focus on renewing rural areas in this nation with fully thirty-three percent of its population over the age of 65, a pretty dramatic difference from other foci on youth, urban areas, or foreign policy. Furthering his predecessor Fumio Kashida’s “new capitalism” will add to interesting debates within Japan as Ishiba confronts the internal growth questions plaguing it for more than three decades.

Ishiba certainly has foreign policy views which will ignite some concerns in Washington. In particular, he is known to favor more equity for Japan in its alliance with Washington, a topic bound to rile those who want to focus on China as the only foreign policy issue in that region. Former President Trump repeatedly charged early in his term that Japan and Korea were getting too good a deal out of their mutual defense agreements with the United States, stating he would demand those nations pay significantly more to ensure U.S. defense; this is similar to his concerns about NATO imbalances.

Ishiba believes his nation deserves more autonomy in its role within the alliance. Until he assumes office Tuesday, it’s impossible to know how that will manifest but it does strike me as particularly worrisome for those who naturally assume Japan will both offer Americans complete access and endorsement of all U.S. actions should an East Asia military contingency arise. Based on his prior statements, Ishiba does not appear inclined to view Japanese and U.S. interests as fully synonymous although that may be my misinterpretation of what I read. He is not indicating he would revoke the mutual defense treaty but he may seek to decrease Japan’s financing for U.S. personnel or even alter the basing considerations, if not command and control arrangements. Many in Japan, particularly in Okinawa, have long sought to reduce the U.S. military footprint on that island.

Potentially more dicey is Ishiba’s position that Japan needs to talk with China. Many in the United States appear determined to isolate Beijing completely to bring it to heel. The incoming Prime Minister’s argued that Japan would do well talk with Beijing in as yet undefined in detail but this illustrates a different contextual understanding of East Asia. Perhaps Ishiba is simply thinking more broadly about Tokyo’s relationship with Beijing having a massive economic component, as does that of every single state in the region since China is the largest trading partner with them all. Perhaps he is thinking of Japan’s geographic proximity or the current disputes, such as in the East China Sea where the two nations both claim some uninhabited rocks with potential mineral extraction implications, with the Middle Kingdom. In any case the strident views on the eastern side of the Pacific seem far less interested in discussing much with the CCP than the incoming Prime Minister’s position implies. During an active conflict, Ishiba’s position would matter a great deal.

What is less clear is how these views will appear to Asian interlocutors. Will Taiwan see as Ishiba’s potential willingness to act more aggressively to support the new Lai administration as it seeks to expand its international position? Would Japan allow U.S. base use in a Taiwan contingency? How will lingering memories of the Imperial Japanese atrocities in World War II play for other countries as he suggests that an Asian NATO is possible? What will be his position on Japanese foreign investment in Southeast Asia or addressing the climate issues plaguing the region? We won’t know for a while but these all appear likely to arise relatively soon after he assumes office.

Politicians, even those 67 years old with decades’ experience, rarely grasp the full array of forces they must balance to govern. Ishiba is no different in that way. But he is definitely a new player who will greet whomever assumes the White House in January. His commitment to his Party “hold[ing] and open discussions” while allowing him to be “humble”, “impartial” and “fair” sounds terrific in principle but politics is a nasty game to those who govern.

Thank you for your time today on this column; please feel free to circulate it if you find it of value. Thank you for the subscribers or occasional readers. Please send any thoughts, suggestion, or comments.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Motoko Rich and Hisaro Ueno, “Plain-Spoken Former Defense Chief is Selected as Japan’s Prime Minister”, NewYorkTimes.com, 28 September 2024: A6.

Yuichi Shiga, “Who is Shigeru Ishiba? Japan set for ex-Abe rival for Prime Minister”, NikkeiAsia.com, 27 September 2024, retrieved at https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-s-new-PM/Who-is-Shigeru-Ishiba-Japan-set-for-ex-Abe-rival-as-prime-minister?del_type=4&pub_date=20240928070000&seq_num=6&si=281f7f93-8589-4279-9601-2a819a56c267