Too dangerous a vanity project?

A few thoughts on “unchallengeable” characters

NikkeiAsia has a fascinating story this morning regarding a super-dam the Chinese are building on the Sino-Indian border, high in the Himalayas. I had not come across that project, but the author, Indian analyst Brahma Chellaney, suggests this is a highly risky project for the millions of South Asians living downstream along the Brahmaputra.

China refers to the river as the Yarlung Zhangbo, indication of Beijing’s usual preference for its name (in this case, actually Tibetan) for a geographical feature despite most maps around the world using the traditional South Asian label Brahmaputra. Regardless of its title, Chellaney’s point is that a massive dam built knowingly on an active earthquake zone menaces people in perpetuity. I am confident Xi Jinping’s government will ignore Chellaney’s challenge as they do regularly with anyone arguing against the General Secretary’s decisions. I am also not sure anyone can do much about it unless Xi Jinping changes his mind.

Earthquakes within the Himalayas as neither unknown nor insignificant. The uncomfortable, grating of the Eurasian and Indian geologic plates regularly releases pressure manifesting as earthquakes. The devastating 2008 Sichuan tremor, killing 69,000 in a remote area of southwestern China, registered at 7.9 on the Richter scale, followed by hundreds of aftershocks. Many roads and buildings suffered profound structural damage.

The Indian plate is no less prone to these terrifying events as the 7.6 magnitude 2005 Pakistani earthquake indicated when 76,000 casualties occurred. Again, occurring in a remote region meant rescue efforts were especially challenging.

Merely two of the countless earthquakes, many of which release high volumes of physical energy.

China admittedly needs water, which is the primary objective of the dam. China began dams which restrict water flow into the Mekong and Southeast Asia decades ago. The appalling water over usage throughout the Four Modernizations, whether for mining coal or increasing agriculture through excessive fertilizer applications, coincided with the transformation of the country’s environment resulting from climate change. Water is only one of the resources consumed in the rapid economic transformation of the past half century since the unimpeachable CCP goal was to expand the economy in hopes of assuring social stability; they figured they could address resource questions later.

The decision to build a dam high in the Himalayas can only be seen as typical of CCP thinking. It will, if completed, constitute an incredible engineering accomplishment. Not only are the isolation of the proposed location and altitude daunting for building (how do you move supplies, for example? Who will be the work force?) as the size of the structure is spectacular. The volume of water this dam will consume is massive.

But one has to wonder about viability of the December 2024 choice to build in such a perilous location. According to Indian newspaper reports, this $137 billion effort near the India-Bhutan border will be a gravity structure to capture water for hydropower generation and other purposes such as transporting for agriculture.

Xi provides us ample reminder he does not brook contentious discussion once he has made a choice. Certainly China ultimately abandoned the COVID lockdowns in late 2022, a rare reversal, but generally Xi has been unwilling to reconsider many of his decisions as I have noted several times in prior columns. I have also noted, that to my knowledge, we don’t have fidelity on granular internal Party policy discussions because it’s a Leninist, closed system by design and the current General Secretary worked assiduously through his anti-corruption campaigns to isolate anyone within the 100 million members who could challenge him, while further shutting what little investigative journalism ever existed.

Xi, true of so much of the CCP, revels in being the guy credited with celebrating the purported incomparable benefits for his people. Not all that surprising for a leader, of course, but his need to take credit, be center stage, curb dissent, and the like tend to help propel China’s aspirations, those of a great culture, to ever higher levels, even if they are problematic.

What I don’t see, unsurprisingly but relevantly, is much concern about the implications for those non-Chinese, whether Indian, Bangladeshi, or anyone else down range of that water should the dam collapse. Or, what happens without those waters flowing south of the Himalayas. Perhaps I am being overly cruel and cynical but I worry a great deal that individuals at the pinnacle of governing without genuine give-and-take with others far too often assume a sense of personal entitlement, if not invulnerability for their choices. That rarely ends well for something as potentially dangerous as something of this scale. Yes, I sound naive but countries have tried ignoring everyone outside of their boundaries creating problems down the line—consequences can arise long in the future.

This tale is still unfolding but I wonder if it’s at least partially a marvelous example of the compelling will of leaders who see themselves as uniquely successful. Xi appears to fall into that category as he is halfway through his third term as General Secretary. His narrative of unparalleled leadership may not match results but in closed, authoritarian systems with grandiose personalities (yes, that is almost always the definition of a leader these days, isn’t it?) it’s exceptionally challenging for anyone to curb the grand man. China’s collective leadership might be able to do so but that is not a foregone answer.

If I lived downstream in Bangladesh or India, I would certainly wonder about this project. Then again, the Chinese population dependent upon energy, water, and CCP accomplishments feel entitled to do whatever is necessary as part of the country’s rejuvenation that too much of the world might seek to thwart.

The world may not stop China now but this project may well add to the doubts about living in a world under China’s priorities, encouraging nations to embrace steps they might not have chosen a generation ago.

We certainly live in interesting times.

Thank you for your time today. I welcome any and all thoughts on this question. I also appreciate those of you who subscribe financially to this effort.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Brahma Chellaney, “An Accident Waiting to Happen” in NikkeiAsia.org, email of 2 February 2025.

“China Approves World’s largest, $137 billion dam on Brahmaputra near Indian border“ TheHindu.com, 26 December 2024, retrieved at https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-approves-worlds-largest-dam-worth-137-billion-over-brahmaputra-river-close-to-indian-border/article69029477.ece

Communications and Publishing, “Earthview—Three Gorges Dam Brings Power, Concerns to Central China”, USGeologicSurvey.gov, 17 November 2016, retrieved at https://www.usgs.gov/news/science-snippet/earthview-three-gorges-dam-brings-power-concerns-central-china

History.com Editors, “2005 Kashmir Earthquake”, History.org, 21 August 2018, retrieved at https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/kashmir-earthquake

Simon Lemonick, “Benchmarks: May 12, 2008: Earthquake Devastates Western China”, Earthmagazine.org 31, August 2025, retrieved at https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/benchmarks-may-12-2008-earthquake-devastates-western-china