two snapshots
actions and consequences in progress
I returned from my terrific visit to Utah late last evening following a delayed flight via Austin. While my dinner of vegan vanilla “ice cream” was sublime, I would have been happy to get home earlier, not least because I had a driver collecting me at the airport.
The driver patiently waited for me because he had committed to it. Almost as soon as he closed the car door, the conversation turned to the news. His son, who was deployed to Iraq three times, was called up as a Reservist this week. My driver struggled to explain what any possible deployment could mean; unsurprisingly, he expects it to result from the Iran war.
What really excited him, however, was prices. He noted more than once the rising price of petroleum, unsurprisingly, since he is a driver. While I was gone this week, prices at the pump increased another dime per quarter, depending on the station. I asked how much of a difference he sees in the amount of fuel his Toyota uses. He thought carefully, then said, “It’s exactly half again more than it was two months ago: $40 to fill the tank in mid-February is now $60.” He expects it only to increase because, to quote him, we might see a nickel or a dime decrease, but this will be a permanent rise because the world has changed so much.
He recounted that his riders are shocked as well, but don’t seem to understand how pervasive the implications are. One woman in Edgewater, a town south of Annapolis, balked when he quoted her his current price for a long-distance ride, countering that Uber was less. He noted to her that Uber was actually more than $10 more (someone who drives sometimes multiple long trips per day keenly watches competitors, of course), so she could take Uber. She called back later to say she really needed him to drive her, but on her terms. My driver laughed; that was not going to happen because he could not afford it: he had costs like everyone else.
Our conversation extended to food costs, with specific price increases cited. Beef, according to my driver, was completely off his family’s table because it’s too expensive. This guy must do his own shopping or accompany his wife, as he discussed the specific costs he pays for tomatoes, lettuce, and fruit. He again blamed the rise in gas prices on the ongoing war, which is hindering the transport of food across the country, shaking his head as he recounted it.
When I paid him for my trip, the reality of what we had covered became apparent. The cost of an airport round-trip between Annapolis and BWI last evening was the same as a trip in January to Dulles on the far west side of the D.C. metro area (about 60 miles), coupled with a return to BWI because of the weather. That is quite a price rise but one unavoidable these days, despite our frustrations.
This was a snapshot of one person’s experience in April 2026.
This is a single anecdote, of course, but I suspect it’s representative of a growing sense of bewilderment about the unexpected consequences of a conflict.
Another data point this week is that registration for hypothetical military service in the United States will change in December 2026.
Conscription, an alternate description of the action, has been part of this country’s history since the 1770s, but more frequently applied to providing forces during specific conflicts such as the Civil War or World War II before it went into effect throughout the Cold War era against the Soviet threat. As Vietnam dragged on, particularly because of visible 1968 contradictions in evidence of success, the nation struggled with who and why we were requiring young men to fight there.
My generation was relieved of that oft-hated service when Richard Nixon ended the draft in the fall of 1973. He decided to return the country to an all-volunteer force following the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Southeast Asia in the face of massive national protests and the Paris Peace negotiations with North Vietnam under Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger earlier that decade.
President Carter did not reinvigorate the draft in 1980, but mandated that men of prime draft age make their names and basic data available to the Selective Service System should a general conflict arise. Since the Carter administration, the Selective Service System has required men between 18 and 25 years of age in this country to register for military service should a draft be ordered.
For decades, I would argue, the prevailing assumption was that no president or Congress would ever reinstitute a widespread draft because military service is so unpopular in practice in the United States. Roughly six percent of the country, overwhelmingly but not exclusively men, have served in uniform, whether active duty, reserves, or National Guard. Many people thank us for the phrase “thank you for your service,” but do not take that particular oath to the Constitution themselves.
Today, the Military Times is confirming rumors circulating over the past couple of weeks that President Trump shifted the requirement from a self-reporting of eligibility to a mandate that all males in the country between 18 and 25 are available for national service. The Selective Service System will cull federal data on men, as women are not subject to this mandate, to assure the federal officials know the force to the President. The change in practice will go into effect in December of this year. Obviously, each one would undergo a physical to ensure fitness. Still, even that will likely change since so many Americans of this age group confront serious weight problems or may have other disqualifying conditions like asthma, bone spurs, or mental health problems.
The move from voluntary mandated registration to the government registering an individual is not predictive of assured conflict by any means. But the move to mandate information on eligibility signals that overseas wars will likely continue, despite hopes of “America First” priorities. That reality will affect budget and policy choices across the United States.
Every day, we see actions that create consequences, whether immediate, medium-term, or long-term. This week, Americans are recognizing that our assumption that we can close the door to the rest of the world is harder than we expected.
I welcome your anecdotes, challenges, rebuttals, or questions on this column. Both of these snippets will provoke the conversation I hope to engender, but that means multiple voices need to speak up, whether supporting or disagreeing with what I note here.
I appreciate the subscribers who support Actions Create Consequences with their financial support. $55 is the cost of a greatly-appreciated annual commitment, or $8 monthly, which helps a great deal. Subscribers have access to the comment pages, helping build the conversation we desperately need in this world of seemingly endless change.
The Spa Creek visitors are returning, thankfully.
Be well and be safe. FIN
2024 Demographics Report: Profile of the Military Community, MilitarySourceOne.mil, 2024, retrieved on 10 April 2026 at 2024-demographic-report.pdf
Christina Stassis, “Automatic registration for US draft-eligible men to begin in December”, MilitaryTimes.com, 8 April 2026, retrieved at https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/automatic-registration-for-us-military-draft-eligible-men-to-begin-in-december/