Unintended consequences and Dobbs
The elections at state level
I have heard or seen three separate stories this morning (and it’s only 0927) on heat affecting and/or killing people at a higher rate than generally understood so it’s nice to know Actions readers are thinking about relevant topics. I am keen raise things that may seem out of our control while we, in fact, are ignoring a portion of the power we actually hold.
I will offer that Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, 597 U.S. 215, is mobilizing women, at least minimally focusing on health care options in much of the country, the opposite of what supporters intended or apparently envisioned. Texas and some other states will remain outliers, I suspect, but the complexity and distribution of power across the whole of our political system has provided those seeking to protect women’s choices in health care with options heretofore , if not unanticipated.
The six conservatives on the Roberts Court used Dobbs, if you have forgotten over the past 25 months, to strike down a woman’s right to privacy for health care choices, to include abortion services, taking the decision from a national guarantee to each state regulating Women’s options on the question. The decision did not prohibit states from approving abortion services, though subsequently many Republicans endorsed a complete federal abortion ban (Make no mistake, they will attempt to achieve this but Dobbs did not carry that water).
Women saw themselves deprived of their rights, their health care options, and their positions as determining authorities in conjunction with their health care providers for their own bodies. Millions mobilized in record numbers across the country, including in somewhat surprising locations. Five weeks after the Dobbs decision, Kansas offered its citizens a referendum to prohibit abortion through a state constitutional amendment. Kansans rejected the amendment by a 59-41% split, with more than 800,000 residents going to the ballot box out of the state’s population of 2.9 million. In a state renowned for “conservative” politics, this was noteworthy.
Since Dobbs, several state legislatures have imposed draconian measures restricting women’s health care. Texas has been probably the harshest and earliest but other states have followed suit, primarily in the Midwest and South. Some of the restrictions criminalize helping women find abortion coverage or penalize women who flee outside of the state to get the services. The bans put into place are punitive against the women with no remedies for multiple health concerns, including an ectopic pregnancy which can be a life-threatening illness. Women in states with the severe bans are forced to carry the pregnancy to term, regardless of danger to the mother. Aiding someone seeking abortion services is a criminal offense in several venues.
Ironically, abortions reported in the United States increased over the past several years while states increasingly restricted access to health care facilities and procedures. Many of these greater number resulted from the drug mifepristone but far from all. Women are also using telemedicine for abortion services; following the pandemic, it is more accessible. Finally, truly desperate women are using barbaric methods long discarded following the 1973 Roe decision: coat hangers in the uterus, ingesting bleach or chlorine or battery fluid, and other absurd and dangerous methods to abort the pregnancy.
Women who can afford to travel outside their restrictive states often do, seeking health care in New Mexico where the right to abortion is codified in the state constitution or Illinois where the procedure remains legal. Twenty-two states abortion access protections following the Supreme Court’s decision by the end of 2023. In other words, voters do not support uniformly passing abortion bans as polling surrounding the issue suggests.
Additionally, several states now see ballot questions for the November 2024 elections that may have interesting consequences for the broader election campaign. Reproductive rights supporters in Missouri and Arizona just this week joined Colorado, Florida, Montana, South Dakota, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and Nebraska in ballot initiatives this fall, though each is slightly different since the Supreme Court endorsed by striking down a national right to abortion.
In general, the petitions submitted to get ballot initiatives in place for November included far more than the minimum number of resident signatures required, indicating women are as galvanized to vote as they were in Kansas two years ago.
This energy, particularly in conjunction with a younger and more diverse Democratic ticket, may well upend the projected election outcome of merely a month ago. Two and a half months in any political season is an eternity but the determination by women seeing themselves treated as less than equal citizens like will draw far more voters—male and female— into the election cycle than true before the Dobbs decision. Again, I readily acknowledge that there is no certainty about any individual race but the turnout will shift significantly with abortion access on the ballot in states otherwise predictably conservative.
One of the effects of our “first past the post” election system, as discussed several times before, is it implies each state has only a single political flavor of voters which is absurd. Missouri, for example, has over 6 million citizens and has reliably had Republicans at the statewide level since Senator Clare McCaskill’s defeat by Josh Hawley in the 2018 and FPOTUS is viewed favorably by 70% of the state’s voters.
That does not mean there is uniform support, however, for either repudiating health care options or Republicans. While Republicans are likely to win Missouri for the FPOTUS, abortion supporters may have deeper motivation to participate to assure their rights are guaranteed. The ballot initiative could affect the outcome somewhat.
In Arizona where President Biden won with a razor thin margin four years ago, the abortion issue could have a significant impact on the enthusiasm of many voters. The Cook Political Report last week revised Arizona’s outlook from a Leaning Republican to “Toss Up” status. Abortion rights questions could certainly bring out opponents more than supporters but the polling on that unique polling has indicated for years that a solid majority of Americans want abortion to be legal in some form: 35% calling for complete access while 50% more supporting abortion access under discrete conditions versus a low 12% opposing access to the procedure entirely. Abortion supporters likely will vote the Arizona election altogether with more liberals drawn into the fray than was true before abortion rights were involved.
Time will tell on all of this because many things could change external to the abortion access question. But success in raising this lightning rod will likely motivate many voters who have never been involved in prior campaigns, even potentially enshrining the right to the procedure in places unexpected merely two years ago.
Actions create consequences, particularly for a society that spends so much of its oxygen on the question of “rights” and “freedoms”. Stripping those rights is proving an act simply too far for many, though Republicans do still intend implementing a national ban altogether. That prohibition seems less feasible today than in the past but this is where other trends become important. The integrity of the electoral system will be crucial—a status worrying to many advocates for a participatory democracy for all citizens.
Is your state holding a referendum? Are you seeing motivated voters opposing or supporting these rallying cries? I welcome your experience and thoughts to enlarge our discussion on this point.
Thank you for reading Actions, as a subscriber, occasional reader, or someone who just found us this afternoon. My sole intention is to broaden our political dialogue on relevant issues rather than accepting the oft-flawed assumption we are victims of mysterious forces completely out of our control. Sure, those forces do occasionally exert themselves but often it’s the actions we see in front of us but choose to ignore that produce the most consequential consequences in our world.
Be well, stay cool, and be safe. FIN
Debbie Elliott and Sarah McCammon, “A Year after Dobbs abortion ruling, the impact nationwide has been dramatic”, NPR.org, 23 June 2023, retrieved at https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183931379/a-year-after-the-dobbs-abortion-ruling-the-impact-nationwide-has-been-dramatic
Ryan King, “Cook Political Report moves 3 swing states from Trump, dubbing them ‘toss ups’ as Harris surges”, New York Post, 8 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cook-political-report-moves-3-swing-states-away-from-trump-dubbing-them-toss-ups-as-harris-surges/ar-AA1osZP2
Dylan Lysen, Laura Ziegler, and Blaise Mesa, “Voters in Kansas decide to keep abortion legal in the state, rejecting an amendment”, NPR.org, 3 August 2022, retrieved https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment’
Geoff Mulvihill and Kimberlee Kreusi, “Arizona and Missouri join states with abortion on the ballot. What would the measures do?”, AP.com, 14 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-and-missouri-join-states-with-abortion-amendments-on-the-ballot-what-would-the-measures-do/ar-AA1oLd54
“Number of Abortions in the United States Likely to be Higher in 2023 than in 2020”, Guttmacher.org, 17 January 2024, retrieved at https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2024/number-abortions-united-states-likely-be-higher-2023-2020
Peter Pinedo, “Significant Rise in Unsupervised Abortions in 2023, New Study Finds”, National Catholic Reporter, 6 August 2024, retrieved at https://www.ncregister.com/cna/significant-rise-in-unsupervised-abortions-in-2023-new-study-finds
“Where Do Americans Stand on Abortion?”, The Short Answer, gallup.org, 17 June 2024, retrieved at https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx