What a welcome

William Lai takes over Taiwan

Tsai Ing-wen transferred the presidency of Taiwan to William Lai ten days ago. The ceremony got a lot of attention and a U.S. congressional delegation, led by Txas Republican Congressman Michael McCaul, visited during his initial week in office to reassure all of the strength of U.S. support for the islanders.

Over this ten days, Lai has learned again that democracy is a wild and woolly thing on the island as if anyone needed reassuring. Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, as their parliament is known, is renowned for fist fights and genuine party loyalty in a manner envied by much of the world.

Lai also learned that his LY minority will create pain. The Democratic Progressive Party, the ‘greens’ who Lai leads, only holds a 51 seats with the long-governing Guomindang actually pulling greater support at 52 this year. A number of smaller parties also won seats in this proportional system. As a result, the DPP proved unable to stop Guomindang legislation to strip the president of some powers.

It’s too early to tell whether this will be a death blow for the new president long term but most of his agenda must address domestic issues as that was domestic issues were at the heart of the campaign. His power is now somewhat diluted because of newly passed greater LY oversight. In a notoriously relationship-driven environment, known in Chinese as guanxi, the accountability for interactions between the Executive Luan and the rest of society—be it military, business, social groups, or anyone else—may provide greater visibility for decisions and accountability but probably fewer concrete achievements as well.

The result of Lai’s inauguration far more noteworthy to many was the People’s Liberation Army Navy exercising around the island as a direct, immediate reminder that Beijing not only finds objects to Lai as an independence supporter but expects him to be a provocateur on cross strait relations.

I have no idea why anyone would find Beijing’s reaction the least surprising. If we are genuinely convinced China’s leaders are obsessed with the island remaining linked to the mainland, what did we think they would do? Back down from their prior insistence because that is what we hoped?

It has long struck me we have a flaw in our thinking about the China-Taiwan issue. If the Beijing is as gung ho on Taiwan as we regularly note, then why are we surprised we are not able to moderate their views? That seems logically inconsistent to me. China has said since 1949 that it will reunite Taiwan with the mainland. This is not news to anyone.

Second, if Beijing is determined to reunify, then exercises are indeed preparation for the actions the PLA might be called upon to conduct. In response to a headline in Nikkei Asia, “China’s drills appear to be ‘rehearsal’ for Taiwan invasion: U.S. admiral”, a savvy PLA analyst of decades’ standing responded to the headline with ‘Appears to be? Well, no sh*t’.

We know PLAN modernisation accelerated after the 1996 Strait crisis when Beijing had no options to deter the Clinton administration from sending carrier battle groups to the region near the island. The substantial expansion in the PLAN submarine fleet is thus no accident but a distinct warning—and by extension preparation for—the possibility of conflict with U.S. Navy forces supporting Taiwan.

Why would we be surprised that the PLAN is exercising after a new president who Beijing accuses of being more independent-minded? This is a case where Beijing’s nightmare scenario of needing respond to the permanent loss of a portion of the ‘Chinese nation’ led to the PLAN beginning overt activities showing their level of preparation. Nothing about this should surprise us if we see Taiwan as threatened to the extent we say.

Taiwan is a wonderful place with Taibei one of the gems of East Asia. I genuinely understand why thousands of Americans retire to the island as it is a lovely place. Taipei’s cuisine is crown jewel of the region for most foodies (cue the silver thread bread). The impressive education system attracts students from many countries. Kaohsiung, the southern city second in population, is one of the top container ports in the world. The island has glorious parks and many inviting smaller towns where one is perfectly safe even without a hint of the native tongue. Taiwan’s high tech industries, far beyond the vaunted chipmakers, are superb and agile. The 24 million people living on the island have managed a participatory, thriving democratic system with much optimism for the future. Every bit of that resulted from the island population that weathered horrible political divisions after 1949 to create the Taiwan so proudly moving into the future.

Beijing would destroy the current society in Taiwan should armed conflict break out. I don’t think China wants a massive war, preferring to squeeze or blockade or somehow incentivise Taibei’s behaviour, but the PLA will go to war as a Party army if called upon. A war between Taiwan, supported by Washington, and the mainland would be destructive for the global economy and all of East Asia. It would be terrible for any of the states directly involved but Beijing would wage it if it truly believed Taiwan were permanently separate from the mainland. They would do so even if in victory then faced ‘rebuilding’ the island.

I wonder how many of those analysts who seem sanguine about fighting China recognise that Beijing would never see this as ‘one and done’. Defeating the PLAN would not move the People’s Republic back to its underdeveloped condition in 1949 or 1960. China would reconstitute the fleet and return to the fray several years down the line because the Party sees losing Taiwan as an existential issue. The person in the White House does not affect Beijing’s thinking as this is a paranoid party fearing its people will retaliate against them should they lose an argument—that Taiwan is part of China—largely of the Party’s making. Why are we having a hard time seeing that?

So, we are in about as good as spot as we can be right now. Taiwan as an undeclared sovereign state allows it to thrive, albeit without the prestige of nation-state status as an independent nation. On the other hand, Beijing is not going to allow that independence to occur without a costly fight for anyone involved, including Americans.

William Lai has had a slightly sour beginning to his term as Taiwan’s president. It could get even worse as actions create consequences. He and the people of Taiwan need to figure out what the ultimate prize is: independence or maintaining one of the most appealing standards of living iand vibrant societies in the world. I have a hard time seeing how they can have both without losing so much.

Thoughts? Are you surprised by what we have seen? I welcome your thoughts, suggestions, and admonitions. How much are you willing to give in this problem?

Thank you for reading Actions Create Consequences. If you find it of value, please feel free to circulate. Thank those who spend their earnings to support my writing as you motivate me every single time.

Be well and be safe. FIN

Ryo Nakamura and Rintaro Tobita, '“China’s drills appear to be ‘rehearsal’ for Taiwan invasion: U.S. admiral’, NikkeiAsia, 29 May 2024, retrieved at https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/interview/China-s-drills-appear-to-be-rehearsal-for-Taiwan-invasion-U.S.-admiral