'Wilders' times ahead

rising ultra-nationalism globally

The clouds are thick in the Chesapeake this afternoon. We had a few rays of pink sunlight this morning but we are so happy with the rain, scant as it is that moved in late morning.

The vote last week bringing Geert Wilders to the fore in the Dutch Parliament is a reminder of continuing seismic shifts around the world. Ardently opposing Islam, Wilders also promises to hold a referendum on ditching the European Union and to halt immigration altogether. His party won 37 seats out of the 150 in the chamber, far more than he won in the past.

The British were late to the EU party, joining in 1974, so their narrow 2016 decision to Brexit was a tad less surprising. The Netherlands is a long-standing member of the economic union, with the 1993 ‘Maastrict Treaty’ signed in the heart of the country. The Netherlands is definitely continental and has definitely been a central player in the Europeans ‘Project’.

Americans generally viewed Holland’s politics as leftist, replete with both open to public drug use and prostitution. A global power four centuries ago, the vast Dutch Indies Company established and exploited a lucrative empire until 1946 in the present-day Indonesian archipelago. Dutch citizens were subject to Nazi occupation in World War II, standing up for the ‘new Europe’ afterwards which built a future around institutional solutions to the continent’s problems as a method to avoiding further conflicts. The Dutch are hardly seen as a throwback society.

And yet, Wilders and his Caucasian, Christian, and ultra conservative positions are reminiscent of another movement in neighbouring Germany in the 1920s and 30s. He was a fringe voice for decades in his country. Yet he is now a power broker with considerable public support.

In 2022, Italy elected a conservative nationalist Prime Minister, Girogia Meloni, who admires Benito Mussolini’s fascist regime of the same time period. In addition, Hungary’s president, Viktor Orban, increasingly plays to ultra-nationalist themes vehemently opposing immigration, Islam, and any sort of representational politics in south central Europe. Plus, Germany has always worried about right wing fringe supporters of Nazi positions, mandating any party must receive 5% of the votes cast to earn seats in the Bundestag.

Europe is not unique in seeing a rise in new political actors in power these days. The Argentine run-off election last weekend ended with economist and political novice Javier Milei winning decisively. I count that a bit differently because Argentina’s politics has been crazy for almost 85 years but the idea of anti-democratic actions being the prescriptions for governing a state whose voters see it in crisis is clearly occurring around the world.

The ultra-nationalists are winning because they promise to deter and penalise those who are viewed as marginalising traditional ethnic majorities in these countries. Meloni governs a country of Italians which feels inundated and harmed by unrelenting masses of migrants fleeing deteriorating conditions in Syria, in north Africa, in central Africa, and surely from the Palestinian communities affected by the current wars. Her policies are not actually solving problems since immigration has been occurring for decades before the present influx. Her challenges, of course, are the same as those Orban and Wilders see.

A parliamentary system requires Wilders to form a coalition to come to power. He is in discussions with centrist and rightist parties (proportional representation always creates more parties than our ‘winner-take-all’ system) whose positions are more tolerant of the EU, immigration, and other positions his voters support. Coalitions mean compromise to work so it will be interesting to see what he creates and how long it lasts. As Bibi Netanyahu is finding in his Knesset coalition, coalition governments are quite a balancing act which often thwart any leader’s deepest aspirations.

Donald Trump, of course, espouses similar views to many of Wilders’ and his cohorts’ proposals. Trump also appeals to many because of his bombastic personality as much as his policies; it’s difficult to know whether anyone could replicate them as electable positions here. It’s not clear how much support he will garner next November as it is. The leaders of these fringe parties in Europe do seem somewhat more embedded in political parties than Trump may be, although today’s Republican Party is definitely Trumpist in nature. What would happen without him at its head is less clear.

The world must recognise, however, that the history of these movements is the antithesis of openness or collaborative governing in the international system. The United Nations-based world has its profound problems but the concepts of global coalition have prevented a World War II-level debilitating conflict for 78 years. Without those structures, competition will increase dramatically in ways now long forgotten.

We are also paying a price in the western world for not teaching history. People seem unaware of the violence, the structural decay that fascist ideas brought, and the pain of exiting those regimes. Nationalism is a dangerous sentiment in many ways. It certainly has its role in trying to unite a people but the damage it can bring is much greater than we seem to realise for economic growth, sharing technology, finding common solutions, and promoting a peaceful world.

After all, actions create consequences—good and bad.

Will the EU survive a second state departing? Is there any chance this could bleed into a departure from NATO? Your thoughts most welcome.

These are questions we will see arise, then resolve in some manner. Buckle up.

Be well and be safe. FIN