yes, I ignored my own thinking
responding to a reader’s chalalenge
A loyal reader pushed back yesterday on my column about multiplayer games. He appropriately asked why my remarks were “too top heavy”, assuming that potential alterations in leadership for Canada, Korea, and Germany absolutely meant problems ahead for those nations and the globe.
He raised an absolutely fair point as how often does the world shrug at unexpected change, then press on?
Noted Korea follower and subscriber retired COL David Maxwell made precisely this point this morning on Facebook as he recounted attitudes he is hearing on the ground in Seoul, three days after the successful impeachment vote against President Yoon. David said people are merely carrying on because life carries on. They are mindful but have other things to address besides the individual running the country with rather curious behavior.
The initial reader was absolutely correct to call me out for the rather Washingtonian fixation that we either have a solution (or should have) for everything, especially in foreign policy. I confess that living near the Beltway for decades does influence one’s thinking because U.S. leaders of both political parties decades ago embraced this hubris that we are central to solving or failing to solve the world’s dilemmas. I am not sure we realize we cause a goodly number of problems but it’s the flip side of the same coin: we think it’s all about US.
No, most changes in leadership do not lead to a fundamental chaos in a country or the world (why, I think I wrote that merely nine days ago when I talked about Syria’s likely continued path as a messed up society even without the al-Assad bunch in charge. See “Great Inconvenient Truth” at
https://cynthiawatson.substack.com/p/great-inconvenient-truth . Forgot to read my own words that countries are systems as much as Revolutionary figures, I guess). He was correct to call me out.
Strategy is the orchestration of many analytical pieces, ranging from instruments and means of using them to determining what endstate we seek to achieve to explaining to Johanna and Joshua Q. Public why any of this matters to them to what the unintended consequences and costs will be to a long list of other matters.
Most crucial, arguably, is clarifying one’s assumptions about the overall condition we are seeing. This is why I am such a believer in asking “why questions” about anything the United States (or anyone else, for that matter) does. If I can’t explain to you why we are doing something, I probably haven’t thought it through carefully enough to justify spending our resources—blood, treasure, or psychic energy.
Yet we too often don’t examine those assumptions, or basic beliefs, to assure we as a people are even embarking on the foreign policy question with the same understanding of the problem. A tragic, obvious case was the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In retrospect, leadership wanted Saddam gone but failed do to the assumption piece. Some folks assumed Saddam had nuclear weapons hidden from the world so he could instigate another 9/11 horror on this country. Others focused the anti-democratic nature of his Ba’athist Party without examining the contradiction they assumed that the government replacing that repressive rule could still easily thrive over a fractured religious conglomeration. Yet another assumption was that we could remake Iraq, thus remake the to we needed to remake the Middle East with a new Iraq as the opening gambit to other things. At times it felt the administration offered daily a new rationale, based on untested assumptions, to justify the invasion.
Assumptions require testing in relation to what we seek to achieve. We chose the instrument (military power exerted through a massive invasion) to create a different Iraq without seeing that some of the assumptions diametrically opposed one another: eradicating the Ba’athists to achieve a democratic Iraq ignored the cobbled-together nature of the society facilitated by the tenuous power of Ba’athist Party ruling mechanism, what if Saddam really didn’t have nuclear weapons, Iraq had been under sanctions for thirteen years (following a brutal decade of war against Iran) so what was actually left to function for anyone trying to lead the country, and on and on.
We increasingly over the post 1990 years came to assume every problem is solvable and merits U.S. involvement. Ironically, we don’t spend nearly as much on foreign assistance or diplomacy as most Americans think but we certainly do spend nearly $900 billion on defense to assure we are ready for each and every possible threat—with many analysts arguing we are actually dramatically underfunding for the threats we face.
My column yesterday fell prey to assuming that instability would result from these leadership shifts but that was a fallacy, most likely. Koreans, Germans, and Canadians are all vibrant democratic voters who will have the opportunity to decide on new leadership, updated policies, and paths for their own nations. Yes, their decisions will affect us as they will create ripples for their neighbors near and potentially far. Yes, instability and unpleasant consequences can result but are far from certain.
But, as our faithful reader rightfully pointed out, the upheaval I hinted at yesterday is only one of a series of possible outcomes. Each case will play out in its unique manner, largely without our help or hindrance.
Actions create consequences doesn’t have to mean cosmic effects.
Yesterday was why I welcome your comments, criticisms, or feedback on each and every column. I do not have all of the answers but need reminders of my own logical faults when they crop up (too often). So, do send some feedback no matter where or who you are.
Thanks for reading Actions today. It’s a pleasure to write with you in mind daily. I appreciate your time, measured reactions, and questions whether you read daily or monthly. I especially appreciate the subscribers who contribute to support this work. The final batch of 2025 calendars of my curated photographs for paid annual subscribers are available if you are inclined and able to make that commitment.
We had a beautiful moonscape last night on Spa Creek, preparing us for today’s clouds, I suppose.
Be well and be safe as the crazy driving season is definitely full on. FIN