Cliff, I am not convinced of the two state solution, either. Therein lies the problem: I am not certain anything short of the elimination of Israel is actually going to satisfy many folks, a proposition that most definitely is NOT my position. The challenge now is that Israel’s actions are the focus rather than Hamas’ because Israel is the established state with military capability. I don’t see eveidence that Israel’s hard policies have solved this which is why I think the two state solution won’t ever engender complete security. At the same time, Palestinians are left with absolutely nothing in the eyes of too many of those we are discussing without the two state solution. In short, it is an unmitigated mess.
Not to go all Hal Lindsey on your readers, but after proposing bringing all Israeli Citizens here to the US (an idea I cribbed from Michael Chabon's "The Yiddish Policemen's Union"), I went to Mass this afternoon. after talking to several parishioners, I settled down to review the readings. The first reading, from Deuteronomy ends:
"...that you and your children after you may prosper,
and that you may have long life on the land
which the LORD, your God, is giving you forever.”"
So, maybe we are up against the Will of God here. Many will reject this view, but it might be something to keep in the back of our minds. Do we really have a handle on this?
I thought the Gov't in Ireland was a bit radical, and a tad ahead of the People. But, Jim Hudson br4ings up the issue of who really favors the two state solution. I am not convinced two states would end the ban guerrilla warfare. I have a vague memory of a news report from the Balkans, where some person, standing on his door stoop, was telling the news reporter that that house five up and on the other side of the road was his family's house 400 years ago. A nice thing about America is that we have all left that sort of memory behind.
I trust you saw the same polling data I did:
71% say Hamas' decision to launch the Oct. 7th attack was correct -- up 14% in Gaza since Dec. '23
70% are "satisfied" with Hamas' "performance" in the war
91% think Hamas did not commit war crimes
59% want Hamas to control the Gaza Strip
73% oppose a two-state solution, an Arab-Israeli peace and normalization
I suspect the only way to end the war is to bring to the US all the Israeli Citizens who wish to come. Lock stock and barrel, My guess is 90 billion to relocate and 90 billion to settle them in. Do we bing the Wailing Wall?
As to your three points to be a state, Hamas is failing at number two, in that it is allowing the people in Gaza to go hungry, even as food crosses the shore or border.
Estimating the future is roughly broken into a few methods two of which are forecasting and strategic foresight.
Diplomatic recognition is a great field to highlight the difference.
In forecasting one would ask when will Taiwan next lose diplomatic recognition from a remaining country. You would then look back over the past few years and determine a base rate and predict when the next country might drop diplomatic recognition. If you do this exercise I think you'd find a pretty consistent rate under Xi Jinping.
In foresight one would ask what would the world look like after no country diplomatically recognizes Taiwan. You take the driver, diplomatic recognition, to the extreme and develop a detailed and complete story of what that world would look like at that endpoint.
From the Palestinian side, when will the next country diplomatically recognize Palestine - forecasting. Foresight - what would the world look like when a Palestinian state exists. Write out the entire narrative of that world.
Working through each question forces an evaluation of risks, costs, and opportunities. It doesn't guarantee you that you'll predict the outcome correctly, but you'll process a range of issues in each potential future and likely be better prepared whichever direction the world goes.
But what do the Palestinians want? Seems like the rest of the world is trying to tell them what they want...or at least what everyone else feels "should" work for all parties. Just some quick research on this question produced interesting articles, data and analysis from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (July 23, 2021). Initial polling data from 2020 and article is here:
Another article in the Fikra Forum (which is tied to the Washington Institute) from 2023 looked at the change in support for the Oslo Accords, analysis being: "...attitudes among both Israeli and Palestinian publics have likewise turned against the foundational assertion of the peace process -- a two state solution." The article states: "Israeli Jewish and Palestinian attitudes on this question from 2016-2022 are almost statistically identical... just 33% of Palestinians ... and 34% of Israeli Jews expressed support for a two-state solution." Link to this polling data is here: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-polling-and-legacy-oslo-accords
The Washington Institute website offers many interesting articles about this topic to include one entitled "Can Hamas Be Defeated." Really good read about the potential post-Gaza war implications here:
They (probably correctly) posit that "ideologies cannot be defeated militarily" which does not bode well for Israel's stated goal of eliminating Hamas. Nazis were defeated in WWII. Nazi ideology continues on.
As you wrote, this conflict started in earnest in 1948. I don't see it ever ending based on the overwhelming political, religious and ideological positions on both sides. And many innocents will perish as this continues. Like most of the rest of the world population, they probably just want to live their best lives free of war, famine, and stress.
No way I know
Cliff, I am not convinced of the two state solution, either. Therein lies the problem: I am not certain anything short of the elimination of Israel is actually going to satisfy many folks, a proposition that most definitely is NOT my position. The challenge now is that Israel’s actions are the focus rather than Hamas’ because Israel is the established state with military capability. I don’t see eveidence that Israel’s hard policies have solved this which is why I think the two state solution won’t ever engender complete security. At the same time, Palestinians are left with absolutely nothing in the eyes of too many of those we are discussing without the two state solution. In short, it is an unmitigated mess.
Brilliant. Thank you for highlighting. I deeply appreciate this for all of us!
"Homo proponit, sed Deus disponit"
Not to go all Hal Lindsey on your readers, but after proposing bringing all Israeli Citizens here to the US (an idea I cribbed from Michael Chabon's "The Yiddish Policemen's Union"), I went to Mass this afternoon. after talking to several parishioners, I settled down to review the readings. The first reading, from Deuteronomy ends:
"...that you and your children after you may prosper,
and that you may have long life on the land
which the LORD, your God, is giving you forever.”"
So, maybe we are up against the Will of God here. Many will reject this view, but it might be something to keep in the back of our minds. Do we really have a handle on this?
Cheer5s -- Cliff
I thought the Gov't in Ireland was a bit radical, and a tad ahead of the People. But, Jim Hudson br4ings up the issue of who really favors the two state solution. I am not convinced two states would end the ban guerrilla warfare. I have a vague memory of a news report from the Balkans, where some person, standing on his door stoop, was telling the news reporter that that house five up and on the other side of the road was his family's house 400 years ago. A nice thing about America is that we have all left that sort of memory behind.
I trust you saw the same polling data I did:
71% say Hamas' decision to launch the Oct. 7th attack was correct -- up 14% in Gaza since Dec. '23
70% are "satisfied" with Hamas' "performance" in the war
91% think Hamas did not commit war crimes
59% want Hamas to control the Gaza Strip
73% oppose a two-state solution, an Arab-Israeli peace and normalization
I suspect the only way to end the war is to bring to the US all the Israeli Citizens who wish to come. Lock stock and barrel, My guess is 90 billion to relocate and 90 billion to settle them in. Do we bing the Wailing Wall?
As to your three points to be a state, Hamas is failing at number two, in that it is allowing the people in Gaza to go hungry, even as food crosses the shore or border.
Regards -- Cliff
Topical opportunity for a mental exercise.
Estimating the future is roughly broken into a few methods two of which are forecasting and strategic foresight.
Diplomatic recognition is a great field to highlight the difference.
In forecasting one would ask when will Taiwan next lose diplomatic recognition from a remaining country. You would then look back over the past few years and determine a base rate and predict when the next country might drop diplomatic recognition. If you do this exercise I think you'd find a pretty consistent rate under Xi Jinping.
In foresight one would ask what would the world look like after no country diplomatically recognizes Taiwan. You take the driver, diplomatic recognition, to the extreme and develop a detailed and complete story of what that world would look like at that endpoint.
From the Palestinian side, when will the next country diplomatically recognize Palestine - forecasting. Foresight - what would the world look like when a Palestinian state exists. Write out the entire narrative of that world.
Working through each question forces an evaluation of risks, costs, and opportunities. It doesn't guarantee you that you'll predict the outcome correctly, but you'll process a range of issues in each potential future and likely be better prepared whichever direction the world goes.
But what do the Palestinians want? Seems like the rest of the world is trying to tell them what they want...or at least what everyone else feels "should" work for all parties. Just some quick research on this question produced interesting articles, data and analysis from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (July 23, 2021). Initial polling data from 2020 and article is here:
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/what-do-palestinians-want
Another article in the Fikra Forum (which is tied to the Washington Institute) from 2023 looked at the change in support for the Oslo Accords, analysis being: "...attitudes among both Israeli and Palestinian publics have likewise turned against the foundational assertion of the peace process -- a two state solution." The article states: "Israeli Jewish and Palestinian attitudes on this question from 2016-2022 are almost statistically identical... just 33% of Palestinians ... and 34% of Israeli Jews expressed support for a two-state solution." Link to this polling data is here: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-polling-and-legacy-oslo-accords
The Washington Institute website offers many interesting articles about this topic to include one entitled "Can Hamas Be Defeated." Really good read about the potential post-Gaza war implications here:
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/can-hamas-be-defeated
They (probably correctly) posit that "ideologies cannot be defeated militarily" which does not bode well for Israel's stated goal of eliminating Hamas. Nazis were defeated in WWII. Nazi ideology continues on.
As you wrote, this conflict started in earnest in 1948. I don't see it ever ending based on the overwhelming political, religious and ideological positions on both sides. And many innocents will perish as this continues. Like most of the rest of the world population, they probably just want to live their best lives free of war, famine, and stress.